#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Bitcoin Market Trend Deep Analysis

(1) Technical Perspective: Confirmation of Triple Bearish Signals, Support Levels Continuously Breached
1. Medium-Long Term Trend Weakening: Weekly chart shows a "Cloud Twist" pattern, with Leading Span A crossing below Leading Span B, indicating a bearish reversal. Historical data suggests that after this pattern, BTC often enters a 1-3 month correction cycle characterized by "slow decline + sudden plunge." Currently, the price remains below the 365-day moving average (101,000 USD), which has been a strong resistance level since November 2025. Three rebounds have failed to break through, confirming the bear market structure remains intact.
2. Key Support Levels Failed: The previous support zone of 90,000-92,000 USD was broken, triggering a large number of automated stop-loss orders, creating a negative feedback loop of "breakdown - liquidation - further breakdown." Technical indicators show the daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) has fallen to 38.6, in the weak zone; MACD has formed a death cross below zero, indicating continued bearish momentum. The next support levels are focused on 84,000-80,000 USD (the upper boundary of the December 2025 consolidation platform). If breached, it may test the early-year rally point at 87,586 USD.
3. Historical Cycle Comparison: Reviewing corrections after three bull markets in 2013, 2017, and 2021, BTC's maximum decline exceeded 70%. In this cycle, from the October 2025 high of 126,080 USD to now, the maximum decline is only 30.4%. The correction is not yet sufficient, and technicals suggest further downside is needed.
(2) Fundamentals: Four Major Bearish Factors Resonating, Market Risk Appetite Plummets
1. Macro Geopolitical Escalation: Former President Trump proposed tariffs of 10%-25% on imports from 8 European countries, sparking concerns over US-EU trade tensions, putting global risk assets under pressure. US stock futures fell 1.2%, gold prices hit a record high, and Bitcoin's role as "digital gold" failed as a safe haven, instead following tech stocks and other risk assets downward, highlighting market sensitivity to geopolitical policies.
2. Institutional Capital Continues to Withdraw: Recent significant net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. After rebounding to 98,000 USD on January 14, ETF inflows abruptly stopped, with a weekly net outflow of $370 million. Weak institutional demand directly undermines market buying support, and the previous bullish logic driven by ETF inflows has been completely discredited.
3. High-Leverage Market Triggers Chain Liquidations: Over the past 72 hours, more than $800 million in long positions were forcibly liquidated, amplifying price volatility. The futures market shows a long-short ratio of 0.997, with longs at 49.88%, indicating a slight dominance of bearish sentiment.
4. Bond Market Turmoil Causes Liquidity Tightening: Japanese government bonds experienced intense volatility, prompting a flight to safety into fixed-income assets globally, putting pressure on crypto market liquidity. OEXN analysis indicates that this BTC decline is essentially a "liquidity re-pricing" event rather than an industry-specific risk. No signs of exchange runs or liquidity crises have appeared; the market remains sentiment-driven.
(3) On-Chain Data: Significant Signals of Large and Medium Holders Leaving
1. Capital Flow Warning: Medium to large addresses holding 10-100 BTC and 100-1,000 BTC have recently increased transfers to exchanges, with a total of 2,360 BTC (about $21.2 million) transferred in from January 19-21. Such movements often indicate strategic selling, suggesting some large holders are pessimistic about short-term prospects.
2. Whale Position Divergence: Despite a whale starting to add 25 BTC (about $230,000) on January 13, with leverage at 7x and a 10% unrealized profit, such contrarian buying cases are rare. Most whales are reducing leverage or exiting altogether, leading to a decline in overall on-chain concentration.
3. Market Sentiment Dropped to Panic Levels: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plummeted from 61 (greedy zone) in mid-January to 31 (panic level) within just five trading days, reflecting a short-term collapse in market confidence. However, extreme panic often signals a potential bottom phase.
Key Price Level Predictions
1. Support Levels: First support at 88,000 USD (recent low cluster), second support at 84,000 USD (December 2025 consolidation center), strong support at 80,000 USD (key psychological level for the year).
2. Resistance Levels: First resistance at 92,000 USD (former support turned resistance), second resistance at 95,000 USD (5-day moving average resistance), strong resistance at 100,000 USD (a critical round number below the 365-day moving average).