ROSE has surged by 34.36% in the past 24 hours. This rapid increase looks very tempting, but my model data tells a different story.

The key phenomenon is the sharp contraction in trading volume. Despite such a large increase, trading volume has decreased by 98.1%—this kind of volume-price divergence usually indicates a subsequent price consolidation in my backtests.

From a technical indicator perspective: the 4-hour RSI has already surged to 71.3, which is a clear overbought signal. Meanwhile, the 1-hour MACD histogram, although still positive, is very small at 0.00027, indicating waning momentum. Even more interesting is the multi-timeframe divergence—4-hour RSI exceeds 71, but the 1-hour RSI is only 66.4, and the 15-minute RSI is even lower at 63.8. The upward momentum is gradually weakening, which is a very clear warning sign.

Probabilistically, after similar volume-price divergence, there is about a 65% chance of sideways movement or a slight pullback within the next 24 hours. The chance of a direct reversal is only around 30%.

Therefore, my decision is to **wait and see**. The current price at 0.02 USDT is already driven entirely by emotional hype. Although the trend has not yet clearly broken down, the risk-reward ratio for going long is not very attractive.

I will keep an eye on two trigger points: if the price effectively breaks through 0.021 with increased volume, I will consider a small long position; or if it pulls back to around 0.018 and stabilizes, I will reassess the long opportunity. The most prudent approach now is to wait for clearer signals from the market.