【BTC 1H Structural Insights | Oversold Test in a Bearish Trend】

Core Trend and Position
BTC maintains a complete bearish trend structure on the 1-hour timeframe. The price continues to operate below all key moving averages, with MA5 (89173) and MA10 (90383) forming a steep downward channel, indicating that short-term downward momentum still dominates the market. The current price hovers around $89,200, testing the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range, which also serves as a short-term psychological support line for bulls.

Key Technical Structure and Observation Points

1. Core Price Zone:
· Support reference below: $87,723 is a recent significant low, forming the lower boundary of the downward channel. The $88,700-$89,200 area is a closer support level currently being tested.
· Resistance levels above: The moving average system forms clear resistance steps. The first level is around 90150-90400 (near MA10), and the second level is at 92100-92300 (MA20 and previous support). Any rebound must break through these levels step by step.
2. Momentum Indicator Signals:
· Trend momentum: MACD lines remain diverging below the zero line, with DIF deeply in the negative zone, confirming that bearish momentum is still ongoing.
· Potential reversal signals: RSI has fallen to 27.7, entering oversold territory. This usually indicates that short-term downward momentum is overextended, and there is an inherent need for a technical rebound. However, in a strong downtrend, rebounds may be short-lived and unlikely to change the overall structure.

Market Structure Projection
The market is at a “trend inertia” versus “oversold correction” battle point. There are two main short-term scenarios:

· Scenario 1 (Technical rebound): The price finds support in the 88700-89200 range, combined with RSI oversold conditions, triggering a rebound toward the 90000-90500 zone. The strength of the rebound (especially whether it can stabilize above MA10) will determine if this is a continuation of the downtrend or a short-term stabilization signal.
· Scenario 2 (Trend continuation): After weak consolidation, the price fails to generate an effective rebound and ultimately breaks down below the 88700 support with increased volume. This will confirm the dominance of downward momentum, and the price will seek support at the next target of 87700 USD.

Current structure indicates that the bearish trend pattern remains unchanged, but the short-term has entered a sensitive zone with rebound opportunities. The market needs a new price action to clarify the short-term direction.

(BTC enters an oversold state in a key support zone, intensifying the bulls and bears battle. Subscribers can access “Real-time Bull-Bear Energy Ratio” and “Key Price Order Flow” data to capture subtle market sentiment changes.)#现货黄金再创新高