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There's a thought-provoking question worth discussing—where does the trading volume of DYDX exchange actually come from?
It looks lively, but in reality, a large part of it is the project team itself making markets. Even more upsetting is that the DYDX tokens distributed through trading incentives are immediately dumped into the market. This cycle, frankly, is just using money from the left pocket to fill the right pocket—creating a false illusion of prosperity.
Looking at DYDX's performance over the past year makes it clear. From a high point, it has been steadily declining, and the underlying logic is quite straightforward: the project team no longer has real funds to support the price. They are unwilling and unable to do so. Those incentive tokens all need an exit, and the final exit is through the secondary market.
There's also a timing issue here. Token incentives will eventually run out. When that happens, what can the exchange rely on to maintain its popularity? Without external inflows and genuine trading volume, the ending has already been written.
So instead of waiting, it's better to see through this question now.
Filling the left pocket with the right pocket—it's too straightforward. I’ve seen similar arbitrage opportunities in another exchange before, and in the end, it’s the same old trick—tokens are gone once they’re used up.
The real issue is trading volume—that’s the core. Without genuine funds supporting the market, the true nature will eventually reveal itself. The trend is clear at a glance.
That’s why I now have to carefully review the smart contract code when screening projects, so I don’t get blinded by incentivized numbers. The pension for my three kids is no joke.
The real test will be when the incentive tokens run out; that's when we'll see who's truly swimming naked.
On the day the incentive tokens run out, what will DYDX have left?
This self-hype cycle will eventually be exposed.
Honestly, it’s smarter to realize what this thing really is and run away early.