Wheat Futures Bouncing Back with Friday Morning Rally

ServantOfSatoshi · 2026-01-21T01:10:25+00:00

Wheat markets are recovering, led by winter varieties, after a downturn. Buyers re-enter as export data shows steady sales. EU production forecasts have increased, while export projections decline, suggesting tightening global supplies.

ServantOfSatoshi

2026-01-21 01:10:25

Abstract generation in progress

Early Friday trading sessions are bringing renewed optimism to wheat markets, with winter wheat varieties leading the recovery charge. After a challenging Thursday session, the grain complex showed signs of stabilization across all three major futures exchanges.

Market Recovery Takes Shape

The overnight rebound marks a shift in momentum for the wheat sector. CBOT soft red winter futures experienced notable losses during Thursday’s close, posting declines ranging from 2 to 3 cents per bushel. Open interest contracted by 349 contracts, reflecting reduced market participation. Meanwhile, Kansas City hard red winter futures declined 5 cents, though open interest climbed significantly by 1,299 contracts—suggesting fresh positioning by traders. Minneapolis spring wheat contracts fell 4 to 5 cents across front-month contracts, though this weakness now appears to be reversing.

Friday’s bouncing action indicates buyers are stepping in after Thursday’s selloff. The market will take a break on Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday before resuming trading Monday evening.

Export Activity and Global Supply Factors

Weekly export sales data released Thursday revealed modest wheat bookings totaling 156,255 MT for the week ending January 8. Unknown destinations topped the buyer list with 72,000 MT, while the Philippines accounted for 61,500 MT of purchases. The 2026/27 marketing year saw net sales reductions of just 26 MT, indicating limited new commitments for future delivery.

In a separate development, a South Korean importer picked up 92,300 MT of US wheat during Thursday’s tender process, adding to export momentum.

Global Supply Adjustments

Production forecasts are undergoing revisions across the Atlantic. Expana lifted its EU wheat production estimate by 0.3 MMT to reach 128.6 MMT for the season. However, the same analyst trimmed export projections by 1.2 MMT down to 28.8 MMT, suggesting tightening supplies for international sales.

Futures Pricing Summary

The morning rally is visible across all contract months:

CBOT Wheat: March 2026 closed Thursday at $5.10½ (down 2 cents) and is currently up 7 cents. May 2026 finished at $5.21½ (down 2¼ cents) and is now up 6½ cents.

Kansas City Wheat: March 2026 closed at $5.17¼ (down 5 cents) and currently trades up 7¾ cents. May 2026 finished at $5.28¾ (down 4¾ cents) and is up 7½ cents.

Minneapolis Spring Wheat: March 2026 closed at $5.63½ (down 4½ cents) and is currently up 2 cents. May 2026 finished at $5.74 (down 4¼ cents) and trades up 2½ cents.

The bouncing recovery Friday morning reflects buyer confidence returning to the market after Thursday’s decline, with all three wheat varieties participating in the overnight strength. The combination of modest export activity and shifting global supply expectations provides underlying support for the current rally.

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