Will IonQ and Other Quantum Players Capture the $72 Billion Market Opportunity by 2035?

Quantum computing is shaping up to be a massive market opportunity—but the question isn’t whether it will happen, but who will benefit most when it does. McKinsey projects the quantum computing market could reach $72 billion by 2035, with a lower bound estimate of $28 billion. That wide range tells you everything: nobody’s really sure how this plays out.

The Market Opportunity Looks Huge… On Paper

The potential applications are genuinely mind-blowing—drug development, materials science, logistics optimization, cybersecurity, AI advancement, weather modeling. If quantum computing delivers on its promise, it could reshape entire industries. IonQ [(IONQ)]( is one of the more popular pure-play bets in this space. It’s not diversified; it’s all-in on quantum. That means massive upside if they win… or total loss if they don’t.

But here’s the thing: we’re nowhere near that $72 billion reality yet. IonQ set a world record for quantum computing accuracy last October, but the technology is still far from commercial viability. Error levels remain too high for practical applications. That means the real payoff is at least a decade away—and that’s being optimistic.

The Competition is Brutal

This space is crowded. Dozens of companies are racing to develop workable quantum machines, each pursuing different technological approaches. Not all of them will survive—many will likely fail.

On one side, you’ve got startups like IonQ with minimal revenue, burning through cash to fund R&D and secure research contracts. IonQ has about $1 billion in the bank—money it’s using to operate and innovate.

On the other side, there are tech giants like Alphabet, Microsoft, and IBM with essentially unlimited resources. Alphabet alone generated over $150 billion in operating cash flow over the past 12 months and holds nearly $100 billion in cash and short-term investments. They can afford to fail multiple times and still dominate the space.

The math is simple: It’s David vs. Goliath, except there are hundreds of Davids and multiple Goliaths. Not everyone survives this war.

The Technology Roadblock

Here’s what keeps industry experts up at night: there’s no consensus on which approach will win. Different quantum computing models excel at different tasks. Some are better suited for optimization problems, others for simulations. It’s entirely possible that the market fragments—with IonQ dominating some use cases while other players own different segments.

This fragmentation means no single company will capture the entire $72 billion opportunity. Even if IonQ becomes a market leader in its specific niche, it could only capture a fraction of that total pie.

So Should You Even Care About IonQ?

Look, there’s still a genuine possibility that IonQ becomes a meaningful player and generates excellent returns for early believers. But it requires two things:

1. Patience. You’re looking at a decade-plus horizon before quantum computing becomes a real commercial force. If you can’t hold through market cycles, wild volatility, and potential setbacks, this isn’t for you.

2. Appropriate position sizing. This is high-risk, high-reward territory. Size your position accordingly—treat it as a moonshot bet, not your portfolio’s foundation.

The honest take? The $72 billion market opportunity is real, but it’s so far in the future and so uncertain that betting on any single company feels like speculation rather than investing. IonQ could be a winner. Or it could be a cautionary tale. The quantum computing market will absolutely be massive eventually—but which players survive to capitalize on it remains genuinely unclear.