BTC returns to the $91K mark: Opportunity or threat from CME gaps?

Two Technical Waves Are Impacting Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin is currently trading around $90.75K, facing two prominent technical issues from the CME market. According to closely monitored traders, two unfilled price gaps are creating psychological pressure on the market, potentially shaping the price trend in the coming days.

The most recent gap appeared when Bitcoin futures on CME closed on Friday at $90,600 but reopened on Sunday at $91,600 — creating a “gap” on the chart. This discrepancy is due to CME operating from Monday to Sunday and stopping trading for one hour each day, unlike Bitcoin’s spot market, which operates 24/7 continuously.

Why Are Gaps Important to Traders?

History shows that Bitcoin tends to revisit and “fill” these gaps — a phenomenon known as “gap filling.” Although not always guaranteed, this pattern has occurred often enough to become a widely recognized technical tool.

Typically, Bitcoin will return to fill these gaps within a few days, most commonly within the first week after they appear. However, some gaps can persist longer, depending on market conditions and trader sentiment. This phenomenon is similar to the “max pain” concept in options markets — the existence of gaps can directly influence market trading behavior.

Traders like Shanghai and many others often predict that prices will move toward these gaps, simply because they exist — an interesting psychological market phenomenon.

Similar Situation Occurring with Bitcoin ETF

An intriguing technical mechanism is developing with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). This ETF closed Tuesday at $52.45 and also has open gaps near key levels $48 and $50.

This indicates that ETF trading is beginning to reflect technical patterns similar to CME futures. As IBIT increasingly becomes an important part of the Bitcoin ecosystem and approaches CME’s influence, these gaps could develop into additional strong technical signals for the entire market.

Short-Term Outlook: How Much Does Bitcoin Need to Drop?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin futures on CME are trading near $91,900. To fill the gap near $90,600 from the weekend, Bitcoin would need to decrease by approximately 1.6%.

If the downtrend continues, a further 4% correction will be necessary to fill the remaining gap from earlier in the year around $88,000. These levels will be key points for traders to watch in the coming week.