Bitcoin at the Crossroads: Between Historic Rally and the Risk of Collapse in 2026

As 2026 opens with new macroeconomic uncertainties, Bitcoin continues to embody a fascinating paradox for the financial market. The leading cryptocurrency has reached levels that seemed unimaginable just a few years ago; however, the significance of these numbers remains debated among optimists and skeptics. With the current price around 90.48K dollars after hitting a historic high of 126.08K, the crypto community questions whether 2026 will bring further bullish surprises or if we will witness a devastating correction.

How Bitcoin Became a Mainstream Asset Class

Bitcoin’s journey over the last 8-10 years represents an almost unimaginable transformation. From when the price exceeded $19,000 and seemed like a fortune, to today where global financial institutions offer direct cryptocurrency trading services, the narrative shift is evident.

The massive influx of institutional capital has redefined the market. Asset managers managing trillions of dollars have launched Bitcoin-backed ETFs, with total assets already surpassing the reserves held on exchanges. Companies like MicroStrategy hold over 600,000 BTC independently, an accumulation that was once unthinkable. Banks that previously closed accounts to cryptocurrency traders now compete to offer trading access. However, despite this institutionalization, the deeper meaning of these price levels remains ambiguous.

The 2022 Correction and Unlearned Lessons

The collapse of FTX in 2022 marked a reckoning moment for the sector. Many investors saw significant capital evaporate, but this crisis did not stop the flow of institutional funds into the space. Today, with Bitcoin in a consolidation zone above, the lingering question in the market is whether the bull cycle will continue unabated into 2026 or if a speculative bubble is forming.

Zeberg’s Technical Warning: an Extreme Scenario

Henrik Zeberg, a well-known financial analyst, has issued a contrarian thesis that warrants attention, even though it represents the most bearish possible scenario. According to his technical analysis, Bitcoin could reach a peak around 154,000 dollars before undergoing a catastrophic correction.

Zeberg’s analysis is based on specific chart patterns. He claims that Bitcoin is currently in the final phase of an expanding diagonal, a pattern that historically precedes severe corrections. The monthly MACD shows divergence signals, and Zeberg interprets these as indicators of an imminent “blow-off top.”

According to Zeberg, after the peak around 154K, Bitcoin could crash by 97-98%, bringing the price down to 3-4K dollars or potentially even lower. This extreme scenario is not just a random prediction: Zeberg references historical precedents like the Nasdaq’s 80-85% crash after the dot-com bubble. He argues that Bitcoin tends to move with even greater amplitude than traditional markets, both upward and downward.

Why This Scenario Should Not Be Ignored

Although Zeberg’s analysis presents an apocalyptic scenario, it is not merely speculative. The parallel with the tech bubble of the 2000s is relevant: the Nasdaq did not decline slowly but plummeted sharply. Similarly, speculative bubbles in crypto have historically seen corrections wiping out 95% to 99% of gains.

Excessive market enthusiasm could fuel the very “blow-off top” Zeberg describes. When the AI and crypto bubbles burst—and Zeberg seems convinced that they will—the declines could be historically significant. In such a scenario, holding Bitcoin could shift from a strategy of accumulation to a survival tactic for capital.

Factors That Could Support the Bullish Rise in 2026

However, the meaning of any forecast depends on the macroeconomic context. If conditions align favorably—reduction of geopolitical tensions, continuation of monetary expansion, favorable election cycles, and growth of AI supporting risk markets—2026 could indeed push Bitcoin toward new highs, at least in the short term.

This dynamic between bullish factors and the technical bearish warning creates a complex crossroads for investors. Bitcoin in 2026 could represent both an opportunity for gains and a risk of massive losses.