The Bitcoin Market in 2026: Between Extremes and Uncertainty - Galaxy Digital Explains the Chaos

When Traders Don’t Know Where Bitcoin Will Go

Options market trading is painting a chaotic scenario for Bitcoin in 2026. Predicted prices fluctuate wildly: by June 2026, traders are betting with equal probability that Bitcoin will hit $70,000 or rise to $130,000. By the end of the year, uncertainty widens even further, extending forecasts from a minimum of $50,000 to a potential maximum of $250,000.

According to Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, this extreme volatility in options does not reflect confidence in a particular direction, but rather deep confusion about what will happen in the coming months. The factors of uncertainty are numerous: changes in global monetary policy, massive investments in artificial intelligence, and the US midterm elections create a scenario too intricate to be deciphered with precision.

Bitcoin Ends 2025 Without Significant Surprises

Bitcoin’s path in 2025 tells a story of unfulfilled promises. In early October, the price reached a new all-time high of $126,080, driven by strong inflows into spot ETFs and improvements in regulatory frameworks. However, the rally did not hold up against macroeconomic disappointments and leveraged position liquidations, bringing BTC back to around $91,000 in January 2026.

Galaxy Digital had made more aggressive forecasts for 2025 that did not materialize. Bitcoin did not break downward toward $150,000, nor did it reach the $185,000 hypothesized. Spot ETFs on Bitcoin, expected to reach $250 milliards in assets under management, stalled at around $141 milliards. The negative Sharpe ratio characterizing the year confirms that the risk-return ratio was not favorable for most periods.

When the Bullish Momentum Might Take a Breather

Galaxy Digital adopts a cautious but not pessimistic stance for the next twelve months. While maintaining a medium-to-long-term bullish outlook, with a target of $250,000 by the end of 2027, the firm recognizes that 2026 remains too chaotic to make reliable predictions. A decisive push upward would require Bitcoin to stabilize and stay consistently above the $100,000-$105,000 range.

Until BTC consolidates these price levels, the risk of a downward correction remains on the table. Galaxy does not rule out new all-time highs in 2026, but considers them far from certain.

The Maturation of Bitcoin as a Traditional Asset

An interesting element of Galaxy Digital’s thesis is the idea that Bitcoin is evolving toward a status closer to traditional macro assets like gold. Volatility has decreased over time, and the costs to buy downside protection (put options) have risen above bullish (call options) bets, a typical dynamic of established and mature markets.

According to Thorn, 2026 could turn out to be a seemingly boring year in terms of prices, ending anywhere between $70,000 and $150,000, without offering the thrill of explosive rallies seen in the past. Yet, this stability could represent real progress: an indication that institutional investors feel more comfortable holding Bitcoin as part of diversified portfolio strategies rather than as a purely speculative vehicle.

For Bitcoin, tranquility could be the most authentic signal of maturation of all.