The liquidity trap behind Bitcoin's safe-haven inflow of $85 billion

Recently, geopolitical turbulence has once again validated Bitcoin’s status as a hedging tool. In a short period, crypto assets absorbed massive capital inflows, with total market capitalization rising by 7%, equivalent to approximately $250 billion in new capital entering the market. In comparison, gold’s capital absorption capacity is less than half that of BTC, and oil’s price response is limited due to supply shocks that are difficult to reflect immediately.

The logic behind this rally is actually quite clear—when macro uncertainty intensifies, Bitcoin has become the preferred risk hedge for investors. But the question is, does this upward movement have sufficient fundamental support?

Leverage Amplifies Prices, Spot Trading Shrinks

From the derivatives market perspective, BTC has recently exhibited typical speculative characteristics. In just a few days, over $450 million in short positions were liquidated, directly causing BTC to surge to $94,000, triggering the largest liquidation event in over a month.

More notably, open interest (OI) skyrocketed by about $3 billion within 24 hours, approaching the $62 billion mark—returning to the high levels seen at the end of last year. This indicates that traders are heavily leveraging, betting on BTC to continue rising.

However, the latest on-chain data from Glassnode reveals a concerning phenomenon.

Spot Trading Volume Drops to Three-Year Low, Risks Hidden

Bitcoin’s spot trading volume has fallen to about $10 billion, hitting a new low since November 2023. This creates a stark contradiction—prices keep reaching new highs, but actual market trading activity is shrinking.

According to on-chain data analysis, this “volume-price divergence” is very dangerous. In an environment with decreasing liquidity, even small sell-offs can cause sharp price corrections. A deeper hidden risk is that the current rally is mainly driven by speculators in the derivatives market, rather than genuine buying demand from spot holders.

This means that once sentiment shifts, long positions could face concentrated liquidations, leading to a chain reaction of declines. In short, when negative news appears, the “high-level bagholders” tragedy may play out again.

Breaking the $100,000 Key Level Requires Genuine Buying Support

The current challenge for Bitcoin is: can the existing rally be fundamentally validated? The data so far does not look optimistic.

Although the derivatives market is hot, the tepid attitude in the spot market indicates that large institutions and long-term holders remain cautious about current price levels. If spot trading volume continues to stay low, breaking through $100,000 will become significantly more difficult, and market volatility will likely increase.

Investors should be alert: this rally could very well be a quick speculative hype lacking sustainable driving forces.

Summary

• Geopolitical FUD has driven $250 billion into the crypto market, with BTC becoming the preferred safe haven, attracting far more capital than gold and oil
• The derivatives market is highly speculative, with open interest approaching $62 billion, and short liquidations triggering large-scale forced closures
• On-chain spot trading volume has fallen to a three-year low, contrasting sharply with rising prices, indicating liquidity exhaustion risks
• Over-leveraged longs mean that breaking the $100,000 barrier requires genuine buying support from the spot market; otherwise, there is a risk of high-level squeeze