XRP in 2026: Why the Market Structure Reflection Indicates a Risk of Dropping Below $1 K Despite ETF Support

The Truth Beyond ETF Inflows

History is clear: ETF capital inflows are only a long-term signal. So what is the real problem? The reflection of the market is not simply “inflows vs outflows”—but the complete picture of how XRP moves within derivatives, the depth of on-chain activity, and the aggressive unloading by large holders.

Currently, XRP is trading at $1.94, but deeper analysis indicates it is in a dangerous position. The 7-day decline of 6.40% and the 1-year drop of 34.80% are not just “consolidation”—they mark the beginning of a larger correction.

The Key Question: Can ETF inflows truly protect XRP against a bearish market structure?

Why the Price Remains Weak: Three Layers of Bearish Pressure

Layer 1: Network Activity Has Increased, Showing Disconnection

This is the most alarming signal. Daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger have fallen to 19,000—a number that does not support organic price appreciation. Historically, every major price surge has required increased network engagement. The current landscape tells a simple story: no new users, no new demand.

Layer 2: The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio—A Detector of True Market Direction

Derivatives data tells an incredible story. The taker buy/sell ratio has persistently remained below 1.0 across all major exchanges. In crypto lingo, this means sell market orders are still being bought. No matter what positive news arrives, the market quickly sells the rally.

The Reflection: the market does not believe in the sustainability of the upward move.

Layer 3: Open Interest Collapse—Risk-Off, Not Accumulation

From a peak of $3 billion to below $1 billion now—this is not normal consolidation. Such large drops in open interest reflect traders actively differentiating their positions. When combined with falling prices, this is a classic risk-off environment.

The Technical Roadmap: How $1 Becomes Reality

The weekly supertrend has turned bearish for the first time this year—a milestone that should not be ignored. The price is approaching the critical support at $1.78, and if it fails, there are no major barriers until the $1.00-$0.80 demand zone.

The weekly RSI remains on a high downward slope since the start of 2025. Since the lower threshold has not yet been reached, XRP is expected to fall below $1.50 in the coming weeks.

The roadmap is simple but clear:

• If $1.78 holds: target is $1.50
• If $1.50 holds: target is the $1.00-$0.80 range
• If $1.00 holds: this psychological floor will become a critical pivot point

Who Is Really in Control: Whales or Institutional Buyers?

The $1.94 price reflects a market where institutional ETF buyers are gradually becoming inactive. Meanwhile, retail traders and protocol whales are actively selling. This is not a conspiracy—it’s pure market mechanics.

Whales are accumulating in the $2.7-$3.3 range and now distributing at higher prices. Their on-chain behavior shows this: average holding time is decreasing, sell volume is increasing.

FAQ: What Is the Market Really Waiting For?

Q: Will XRP reach $5 by 2026?
A: Probabilities are low based on the current structure. XRP needs strong network recovery, regulatory clarity, and sustained institutional demand. The $5 story is more likely to extend into 2027-2028.

Q: Is ETF still participating, right?
A: Yes, but their volume is smaller than derivative selling pressure. Institutional capital is flowing, but velocity is slowing down.

Q: Where is the real floor?
A: Technical support at $1.00, a critical psychological level. Below that, $0.80 acts as a liquidity layer that must be supported.

The Final Word: What Does the Market Reflection Show?

The market reflection reveals a simple truth—the ETF inflows are not enough to support the short-term bearish structure. Until we see:

• Increased network activity
• Balanced taker buy/sell ratio
• Rebound in open interest

…the risk of breaking below $1.00 remains high.

For investors, the bottom line is: prepare for lower prices while monitoring support levels. The $1.78 level is the first line of defense. If it fails, $1.00 is likely to be broken without much hesitation.