The gold chart approaches $4310: do analysts see room for further gains up to $4400?

The last few days have seen the precious metals market characterized by strong bullish momentum. Gold prices have recorded a series of four consecutive gains, reaching the level of $4,310 per ounce during European trading on Friday — a milestone not reached since October 21 — with a daily increase exceeding 0.7%. Meanwhile, silver has shown even more vigorous performance, with daily gains over 1%, approaching all-time highs and breaking the $64 per ounce threshold last Thursday.

The reasons behind the bullish momentum of the yellow metal

The main driver of this rise is the Federal Reserve’s stance. After the rate cut announced on Wednesday, central bank officials left the door open for further reductions in the coming months. Although the official dot plot indicates only one cut in 2026, derivatives market operators are already pricing in two possible interventions. A low-interest-rate environment creates an ideal setting for precious metals, as these assets do not generate coupon yields and benefit from more contained real interest rates.

Adding to this is an even more expansionary monetary policy measure: the Federal Reserve will soon launch a monthly purchase program of $40 billion in government bonds, aimed at replenishing banking system reserves. This intervention will provide additional support to safe-haven assets like gold.

Weak dollar and ETF inflows

The context is further supported by a unfavorable trend for the greenback, which is experiencing its third consecutive week of weakening. A more fragile US dollar makes gold significantly more attractive to international buyers, exerting additional upward pressure.

Data from the World Gold Council provide an interesting picture: in 2024, excluding May, inflows into gold ETFs have shown positive balances every single month. This consistent subscription to exchange-traded funds demonstrates persistent investor confidence in the yellow metal as a portfolio protection tool.

Analysts’ outlook: where could the price go?

Dilin Wu of Jishi Research believes that the gold chart continues to outline a bullish structural pattern with further development potential. According to the analyst, although a surprise upside inflation in the coming months could trigger a temporary correction, as long as the Federal Reserve maintains its accommodative stance, the medium-term upward trend should remain stable.

Hebe Chen of Vantage Markets emphasizes how solid institutional demand from central banks, combined with capital returning to gold funds, along with expansive monetary policies and endemic geopolitical tensions, will continue to provide macroeconomic support for the price. In this perspective, the rally could extend even toward 2026.

Technical levels and targets from specialists

Fxstreet analysts identify the psychological level of $4,300 as a crucial turning point. Once this threshold is surpassed, gold could move toward the resistance area between $4,328 and $4,330. If momentum persists, the next target becomes the October high positioned near $4,380.

Breaking the psychological barrier of $4,400 would be an even more bullish signal, solidifying the foundations for a continuation of the bullish trend started from the October monthly low.

Regarding silver, Ajay Kedia of Kedia Commodities highlights how ETF inflows, physical scarcity, and expectations of further Fed cuts all support the positive movement. From a technical perspective, the silver chart has completed a rounded bottom formation, with an estimated target of $75.

Cautionary note from specialists

Sucden Financial offers a more conservative view. While recognizing that silver benefits from the narrative of structural supply deficits, analysts point out that gold remains the most reliable barometer of broad macroeconomic prospects and expected real yields. Unless the dollar experiences a new and significant depreciation, short-term gains may face limitations.