Tech Giants will conquer the crypto market, while fintech Layer 1s lose ground in 2026

Forecast Analysis - According to Haseeb Qureshi of Dragonfly Capital, in 2026 we will witness the massive entry of big tech into the sector. Google, Apple, or Meta could launch proprietary crypto wallets, potentially exposing billions of global users to digital assets. - Fortune 100 companies will deploy private blockchain infrastructures on Avalanche and OP Stack, maintaining connections with public networks for institutional operations. - Layer 1 solutions created by fintech players like Robinhood will experience contraction compared to established giants like Ethereum and Solana, showing low activity and minimal user growth.

The dominance of Big Tech in digital finance

In the context of forecasts for 2026, Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly Capital, predicts that one of the major tech companies will acquire or develop a crypto wallet solution. Giants like Google, Apple, or Meta have the potential to democratize access to cryptocurrencies, introducing hundreds of millions of new participants into the digital ecosystem.

The managing partner stated in a recent interview that this moment marks a crucial turning point. The entry of these giants could replicate the adoption model of traditional finance, greatly accelerating the market penetration curve.

Fortune 100 private blockchains: a new institutional era

Major banks and financial firms will accelerate the deployment of blockchain infrastructures, implementing permissioned solutions on Avalanche and building interoperable ecosystems through toolkits like OP Stack, Orbit, and ZK Stack.

Institutions such as JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and IBM are already experimenting with this approach. Although most remain in pilot phases, it is expected that 2026 will mark the transition to commercialization. The goal is to create controlled parallel ecosystems connected to public networks for liquidity and regulatory needs.

Fintech Layer 1s face fierce competition

Layer 1 blockchains launched by fintech startups are in a vulnerable position. Projects like Tempo, Arc, and Robinhood Chain will confront a competitive landscape where developers and users prefer agnostic and already established platforms.

These specialized L1s will show weak metrics: low active address volumes, limited stablecoin flows, and minimal penetration into real-world asset markets. Market preference will shift toward Ethereum and Solana, which offer greater liquidity, composability, and established network effects.

Price dynamics and stablecoin market growth

Bitcoin will perform positively, surpassing $150,000 by the end of 2026, although its relative dominance will decrease. The current figure, with BTC priced at $91.22K, suggests significant room for appreciation.

The stablecoin market, currently valued at $312 billion, will accelerate with an expected annual growth of 60%. Tether, dominating with 60% market share, will experience dilution, dropping to 55%, due to the emergence of well-capitalized competitors.

Stablecoins and prediction markets lead innovation

The adoption of stablecoins is reaching a tipping point in cross-border payments. According to a McKinsey study, stablecoins now account for 3% of international transfers, an exponential growth considering it was virtually zero a year ago.

Rob Hadick of Dragonfly predicts a multiplicative expansion, with prediction markets like Polymarket further increasing their relevance. While Solana dominates the high-volume trading segment, Ethereum will continue to concentrate the largest overall economic activity, maintaining its role as the primary DeFi infrastructure.

These trends reflect the maturing of the ecosystem and a progressively favorable regulatory environment, especially under the new US guidelines from January 2025. Simultaneously, the acceleration of China’s digital yuan in 2026 could amplify global CBDC adoption, introducing mechanisms of interest on e-CNY deposits to incentivize participation.