Can Bitcoin hold above $60,000? Traders warn of macro risks brewing adjustments

【Chain Wen】Senior trader Peter Brandt recently issued a forecast, predicting that Bitcoin is very likely to fall into the range of $58,000 to $62,000 within the next two weeks. This prediction has attracted considerable market attention because Brandt accurately predicted the significant decline of Bitcoin in 2018.

He pointed out that Bitcoin currently faces a key resistance level around $102,300, and remains in a bearish trend overall. However, this technical pressure is not the core issue—the real trouble comes from the macro environment. Analyst Jason Fernandes stated that although the target price is technically achievable based on charts, the true driving force lies in macroeconomic conditions, not just chart patterns.

The current macro risks are indeed numerous. The possibility of escalating tariffs between Europe and the US, and rising geopolitical tensions, all set the stage for Bitcoin’s downside. Fernandes emphasized that although US inflation has fallen below 2%, central bank policies remain cautious. Any further escalation of tariffs or geopolitical frictions could reignite inflation expectations and delay the rate-cutting cycle. As long as interest rates stay at restrictive levels and liquidity remains limited, the risk of Bitcoin retesting the midpoint of $55,000 still exists.

Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, agrees with Brandt’s probability assessment. He believes that after years of Federal Reserve liquidity tightening and the worst economic environment in decades, macro conditions may exert influence beyond any single chart signal. From options market data, the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $80,000 before June is about 30%, which also reflects the market’s pricing of downside risk.