Bitcoin after 2026: When the long cycle pattern profits investors

Raoul Pal is changing the game. Instead of forecasting Bitcoin’s peak in 2025, the macroeconomic analyst argues that the four-year bull cycle has extended to five years. This means one thing: the bull market never died, it’s just patiently waiting until 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC) currently valued at $91.22K, has fallen over 40% despite increasing global liquidity. This disrupts the pattern that has guided markets all along. When M2 was growing, BTC should have been rising together. This time, investors were waiting for an ATH, but instead saw a decline.

How liquidity lost control over Bitcoin

History shows a simple pattern. Global money supply M2 increases → Bitcoin increases. In 2020-2021, this mechanism worked flawlessly. Now? Gold was rising, global liquidity increased, and Bitcoin dropped below $100K.

Investors expecting $200K in dollars observed something entirely different. This gap between the supposedly undeniable pattern and market reality raises a fundamental question: is Bitcoin no longer responding to traditional impulses?

The answer lies in changes to monetary policy. Jerome Powell, despite rising federal debt, maintains higher interest rates longer than the market predicted. This delays the wave of cheap liquidity that usually fuels crypto rallies. When the Fed extends its schedule, Bitcoin also adjusts its cycle to new conditions.

Peak postponed but not canceled

Nathan Sloan analyzed Pal’s thesis and reached similar conclusions. The five-year bull cycle has shifted the market top from 2025 to 2026. This doesn’t mean a bear market is here. It means the bull is working on reserve.

In the short term, pain remains possible. In 2019, when the Fed ended tightening, Bitcoin still fell for six months before the market stabilized. History may repeat itself – another 50% drop before the ultimate bottom is in play. However, each decline will only be a setup for the next phase.

When liquidity finally reaches the market—and the new Fed chair is expected to cut rates—change could be spectacular. The altcoin season is on the wings. It’s not moving yet because it’s following Bitcoin, but the start date is approaching.

Thesis to be verified by the end of March

The first quarter will be decisive. If Pal is right, the first half of 2025 will show the beginning of preparations for a mega rally. If he’s wrong, the market will signal it much earlier.

Bitcoin never died—only changed its calendar. The question every investor asks: do you have enough patience to wait?