Metaplanet considers Bitcoin accumulation strategy: The deep considerations behind the decision

As of current (BTC) Bitcoin at 91.33K USD, down 1.81% in 24 hours, the market is witnessing a clear divergence among digital asset treasury companies. While Strategy—the industry giant—just announced the purchase of an additional 10.624 BTC at a cost of nearly 1 billion USD, Metaplanet, a Japanese publicly listed company often compared to the “Asian version of Strategy,” is considering different approaches. Since late September 2025, this company has halted increasing its Bitcoin holdings, a carefully considered move and not a hasty decision.

Industry Landscape: Divergence in the Digital Asset Treasury Race

The entire DAT (Digital Asset Treasury) sector is undergoing a testing phase. Market data shows that the total market cap of Bitcoin treasury companies has fallen sharply from 150 billion USD to 73.5 billion USD in Q4, a nearly 50% decline. Most companies in this field report a market cap to net asset value ratio below 1.

Shares of DAT companies in the US and Canada have fallen an average of 43%, with some losing over 99% of their value. Analysts describe this as a “Darwinian phase”—market filtering where unadapted business models are eliminated, leaving only those with strategic foresight to survive.

Financial Pressure: Valuation Ratios and Accounting Risks

Metaplanet currently holds over 30,000 BTC valued at approximately 2.75 billion USD, with an average cost of 108,000 USD per digital coin. Due to Bitcoin price adjustments, the company has recorded unrealized losses exceeding 500 million USD on its books.

The market capitalization to net asset value ratio has reached 0.99, a “break below book value” phenomenon prompting practical considerations. Previously, driven by aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategies, the company’s stock price rose from 20 USD in April 2024 to a peak of 1,930 USD in June 2025. Although down 70% since then, the annual result still shows a 20% increase.

CEO Simon Gerovich publicly refuted the notion that fundamentals and stock prices always move together. However, he warned in September that issuing additional shares when net asset value is below market cap would “destroy the math” of shareholder value.

Japan’s conservative accounting standards also exert pressure. To avoid exacerbating unrealized losses on the income statement, the company has strategically considered suspending further purchases.

From Accumulation to Optimization: New Approaches

This pause is not a failure but a defensive stance before launching advanced strategies. The Q3 financial report shows revenue of 2.401 trillion yen (up 94%), operating profit of 1.339 trillion yen (up 64%). Notably, the options business segment contributed 16.28 million USD in revenue, up 115%, enough to cover operational costs.

Metaplanet is upgrading its capital structure through multiple channels:

New Digital Credit Instruments: The company plans to launch “Mercury” and “Mars,” with Mercury offering a 4.9% yield in yen, ten times higher than the standard Japanese bank deposit rate. This is a smart move to attract domestic investors seeking profitable tools.

Debt Financing: The company borrowed an additional 130 million USD from a 500 million USD credit line to buy Bitcoin, instead of issuing new shares during an unfavorable valuation period.

Preferred Shares: Metaplanet plans to hold a special shareholders’ meeting on 22/12 to discuss issuing preferred shares, modeled after Strategy’s convertible bonds.

Local Advantages: Unique Position in Japan

Metaplanet benefits from several specific factors in the Japanese market:

With the yen continuously depreciating, Bitcoin acts as an effective inflation hedge, helping domestic investors preserve purchasing power.

Tax exemption regimes for personal savings accounts have helped attract 63,000 domestic shareholders. Buying Metaplanet shares through these accounts offers tax advantages, instead of facing a 55% tax rate on direct crypto holdings.

International recognition is also increasing—Capital Group has increased its stake to 11.45%, becoming the largest shareholder. The top 5 shareholders include MMXX Capital, Vanguard, Evolution Capital, Invesco Capital.

By December 15, Metaplanet’s market cap surpassed Kioxia Holdings (memory chip manufacturer) with a 400% increase in two months, even overtaking Screen Holdings and Tokyo Metro.

Upcoming Risks

Despite opportunities, Metaplanet must consider potential threats.

Index Inclusion Risks: Since being added to MSCI Japan in February this year, the company faces concerns about exclusion if its Bitcoin asset ratio becomes too high. This could trigger a wave of selling from passive funds.

Tax Reforms in Japan: The Japanese Financial Services Agency is planning to revise crypto taxation in 2026, reducing the tax rate on crypto assets from a progressive 55% to a flat 20%, similar to stocks. If implemented, this would significantly weaken the incentive to buy Metaplanet shares instead of holding crypto directly.

Outlook: Industry Maturity

Metaplanet’s decision to pause marks a shift from aggressive accumulation to risk management and control. This is not a failure but a strategic consideration based on current market conditions.

Experts believe that valuing DAT companies solely on market cap to net asset value ratios is insufficient, as it overlooks the company lifecycle. In the future, a clear divergence will emerge among treasury companies—those with strategic foresight like Metaplanet will maintain competitiveness, while companies focused only on blind accumulation may face difficulties.

The upcoming shareholders’ meeting on 22/12 will be a key indicator of the company’s medium- to long-term direction, determining whether this pause is merely temporary defense or the start of a comprehensive strategic transformation.