HBAR Faces Critical Support Test Amid Sustained Selling Wave—Capitulation Risk Elevated

Hedera (HBAR) is navigating treacherous waters as persistent downward pressure keeps the token pinned near the crucial $0.11 threshold. With bears maintaining firm control and technical structures deteriorating, the cryptocurrency appears increasingly vulnerable to a rapid capitulation-driven selloff should key defensive levels fail to provide relief.

The Technical Breakdown: Why $0.11 Matters

The market structure deterioration is unmistakable. HBAR’s price action has established a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows, a hallmark of bearish continuation. The breakdown of the Value Area High marked the inflection point—once that level cracked, sellers seized control and haven’t relinquished it since.

What makes the current setup particularly precarious is the loss of the Value Area Low. By trading below this zone, HBAR has signaled an exit from the prior equilibrium and entered what technicians call a “lower-value regime.” This transition typically catalyzes directional movement as market participants scramble to establish new price discovery.

The Point of Control—a volume-weighted level representing peak trading activity—has been thoroughly compromised. After initially breaking below it, HBAR attempted to reclaim the level as support but faced fierce rejection. This bearish retest is a textbook signal that the market has accepted lower valuations and is unlikely to soon revisit the old range.

Below $0.11: The Capitulation Scenario

The $0.11 level represents more than just another support—it’s the final meaningful defensive barrier on the higher timeframes. Below this, liquidity is sparse, and the path widens for an accelerated decline toward prior swing lows where significant buying interest once clustered.

Capitulation, in market terms, doesn’t signal the end of decline but rather an acceleration phase where desperate selling exhausts remaining weak hands. When stops cascade and forced liquidations trigger, price can move with shocking speed. This dynamic often provides the volatile bottom-fish opportunities, but the journey down is rarely pleasant.

The absence of robust support infrastructure below $0.11 amplifies the downside risk. Should buyers fail to defend this level on a closing basis, HBAR could rapidly deteriorate without meaningful friction until reaching deeper liquidity pools or psychological price levels.

Momentum Confirms the Bearish Narrative

Momentum indicators align with the technical structure. The sustained bearish pressure has persisted without the corrective relief that typically accompanies wash-outs. Instead, each bounce has proven shallow and short-lived—classic behavior indicating seller dominance remains unchallenged.

For a genuine bullish invalidation to materialize, several conditions would need to align: renewed buying pressure capable of reclaiming the Value Area Low, a decisive break in the lower-highs-and-lower-lows sequence, and—critically—a reclamation of the Point of Control as support. None of these signals have materialized, leaving the bearish thesis intact.

What Traders Should Monitor

Current Data Point: HBAR trades at $0.11 with a 24-hour decline of -1.47%, placing it squarely at the critical juncture.

The coming price action hinges on whether $0.11 holds firm or capitulates. Traders watching the tape should monitor volume patterns at this level—high-volume rejection would signal renewed buying interest, while low-volume breaks could herald the capitulation move. Until the bearish market structure fundamentally shifts, defensive positioning remains prudent for risk-conscious participants navigating this challenging technical environment.