January 20, 2026 BTC Technical Trading Strategy

I. Core Market Premise

As of 5:00 PM on January 20, BTC is quoted at $92,865, down 2.73% in 24 hours, with intraday fluctuations between $91,910 and $95,531. The trading volume is $39.86 billion; the daily price is below the 20/50-day moving averages. MACD shows a death cross, RSI is at 44.2, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment. Short-term bears dominate, and the market is oscillating within the $91,000-$98,000 range.

II. Multi-Cycle Trading Strategies

1. Short-Term Strategy (1-3 days, swing trading)

| Direction | Entry Conditions | Entry Price | Stop-Loss | Take-Profit Targets | Position Size Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | 4-hour K-line stabilizes above 93,655 (20-day MA) + RSI breaks above 50 + volume increases by 20% | 93,500-93,800 | Below 91,000 (lower boundary of daily ascending channel) | First target 94,443 (50-day MA); second target 96,000 (previous support level) | 5%-8% |
| Bearish | Rebound to 93,655-94,443 zone encounters resistance + volume diminishes + MACD negative histogram expands | 93,800-94,200 | Above 94,600 (resistance zone upper boundary) | First target 91,500 (primary support); second target 89,500 (Fibonacci 0.618 retracement) | 5%-8% |

2. Mid-Long Term Strategy (1-4 weeks, trend positioning)

- Observation and Wait: Currently, there is significant bullish and bearish divergence. Given high macro uncertainty (FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve), avoid aggressive positioning. Wait for two confirmation signals: ① volume breakout above 96,000 resistance; ② stabilization and rebound after support at 91,000.
- Gradual Position Building: If a correction occurs to the $89,500-$90,000 zone (Fibonacci strong support + historically validated levels), build long positions in three batches, with total exposure not exceeding 30%.
- Batch 1: $89,500-$90,000, 10%
- Batch 2: $88,500-$89,000, 10%
- Batch 3: $88,000 (extreme support), 10%
- Stop-Loss: Below $87,500 (break below indicates trend reversal)
- Take-Profit Targets: First at $96,000; second at $98,000 (historical high)

III. Key Risk Control Points

1. Strict Stop-Loss: Short-term stop-loss within 2.5%-3%; medium to long-term within 5%. Avoid leveraged positions (recommended leverage ≤ 2x).
2. Avoid Event Risks: Before the FOMC meeting on January 27-28, reduce positions or stay on the sidelines to prevent sharp declines caused by hawkish policy statements.
3. Volume Priority: Any entry must be confirmed by volume. Breakouts or stabilization without volume are considered false signals.