MegaETH launches ultimate stress test: 11 billion transactions, 88% chance of valuation exceeding $10 billion

MegaETH mainnet will launch on January 22, initiating a 7-day global stress test. This test is regarded as a critical validation before the official launch of this high-performance Layer 2 network, aiming to demonstrate its technical capabilities under extreme load. More notably, market expectations for MegaETH have been reflected in the Polymarket prediction market, with an 88% probability betting that its FDV will exceed $1 billion within one day of launch.

Core Metrics of the Stress Test

MegaETH’s stress test is ambitious. Handling 11 billion transactions within 7 days—what scale does this represent? To put it in perspective, this means the network must operate stably under sustained high load, maintaining throughput between 15,000 and 35,000 transactions per second. This TPS target far exceeds Ethereum mainnet (currently about 15 TPS) and is at the forefront of Layer 2 competition.

Actual Design of the Test

The test is not just a numbers game but is based on real-world application scenarios. During the testing period, MegaETH will launch multiple on-chain applications, including games like Stomp.gg, Smasher.fun, and Crossy Fluffle. Meanwhile, the backend will continuously execute ETH transfers and automated market maker operations via the decentralized protocol Kumbaya.xyz until reaching the target of 11 billion transactions.

The significance of this design is that the stress test not only verifies the network’s throughput but also assesses performance under real usage conditions. In other words, MegaETH aims to prove that even when fully utilized, the system can remain stable.

Funding Background and Technical Accumulation

MegaETH was established in 2022 and has completed a $20 million seed round of funding. The investor lineup is impressive, including Dragonfly Capital, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, and ConsenSys founder Joseph Lubin. This background indicates that the project did not emerge out of nowhere but has gained recognition from key figures within the Ethereum ecosystem.

Reflection of Market Expectations

Prediction data on Polymarket speaks volumes. Currently, over $7 million in trading volume bets on MegaETH’s prospects, with an 88% probability predicting its FDV will exceed $1 billion within one day of launch. There is a 41% chance it will surpass $2 billion, and a 14% chance it will exceed $3 billion. These figures reflect a relatively optimistic market attitude toward MegaETH’s performance and ecosystem.

Ecosystem Readiness

Beyond technical aspects, MegaETH’s ecosystem infrastructure is gradually improving. Its native stablecoin USDM was launched on December 29, 2025, with a current price of $0.995473 and a 24-hour increase of 0.74%. USDM is positioned as a key infrastructure component for MegaETH, supporting ecosystem applications.

Additionally, RedStone provides dedicated oracle services—RedStone Bolt—for MegaETH, ensuring real-time and accurate USDM price data. Furthermore, the stablecoin protocol Cap plans to deploy on MegaETH in Q1 2026, further expanding the ecosystem’s application scope.

Future Outlook

After the stress test concludes, MegaETH plans to quickly launch its public mainnet. The initial rollout will integrate multiple DeFi and consumer applications, supported by USDM at the core. This “test first, then launch” strategy is much more cautious compared to directly launching the mainnet.

Based on current information, if the stress test proceeds smoothly, MegaETH is expected to demonstrate strong performance, stability, and a mature ecosystem. This also provides a reference point for the entire Layer 2 space, as it directly showcases achievable performance metrics.

Summary

MegaETH’s stress test is a public validation of its technical strength. With a target of 11 billion transactions and 15,000-35,000 TPS, coupled with an 88% market expectation support, the project demonstrates both technical ambition and market recognition. The readiness of ecosystem applications and infrastructure provides more room for imagination after the mainnet launch. The key factor moving forward will be whether the actual results of the stress test meet expectations, which will directly influence MegaETH’s position in the Layer 2 competition.