Honestly, the first few months of each year are often the hunting season for the big players to harvest. But this year's situation is a bit different—the wave of black swans in October indeed disrupted the rhythm, and with fewer and fewer people remaining in the bear market, even the big whales can't find opponents to cut their meat. To create another round of blood-making opportunities before and after the Spring Festival, they will inevitably have to force a rally and create the illusion of a bull market. Basically, this week is very likely the critical point of this bear market; once we get through this week, a reversal will begin.



So my trading plan has changed—starting next week, as long as there are no black swan-level events, I will stick to long positions and completely abandon short positions. The current price range is the golden window for bottom-fishing; how many people cut their losses here is someone else's entry point. #美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 is the same, and $ETH type of ecosystem tokens can also be followed.

However, there is a prerequisite—US economic data (such as core CPI) must be closely watched. If unexpectedly strong data appears, the market rhythm will need to be readjusted. In the short term, the outcome of market sentiment still depends on macroeconomic factors.
ETH-4,66%
BTC-2,22%
SOL-3,63%
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BlockchainBardvip
· 8h ago
People who cut their losses in a bear market are our chips. This week indeed feels like a turning point, but I still need to keep an eye on the data from the US. If CPI throws another curveball, I’ll have to change my plan.
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AmateurDAOWatchervip
· 8h ago
Core CPI didn't explode, so this wave is indeed an opportunity, but I'm still a bit hesitant, afraid of another black swan. --- The more people cut losses, the more it indicates that the bottom has indeed been reached. Is this logic valid? I just feel this time is different. --- Waiting for a reversal after this week? Haha, just listen, the macro environment is the real boss. --- I've heard the Spring Festival rally theory too many times. Is this time really different? --- I'm optimistic about going long, but the premise is that CPI doesn't cause trouble. If the US suddenly surprises us, I'll just run away. --- How many people are cutting losses at low levels? That must be so desperate, which makes me more cautious. --- SOL can follow the trend, but don't be greedy. A bear market mentality is very important.
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LuckyHashValuevip
· 8h ago
It sounds logically clear, but I still feel that the macro side is hard to control; if a data point drops, everything becomes meaningless.
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SilentAlphavip
· 8h ago
Core CPI underperformed expectations, which indeed gave the bulls a chance to breathe, but I still think this week might not necessarily be the turning point; it feels a bit too optimistic. --- Many people selling off doesn't mean the bottom is in; I can't quite buy into that logic. In fact, the more people sell, the more cautious we should be. --- Sticking to a long position sounds great, but before the Federal Reserve signals anything, I think I’ll just wait and see. --- The idea of pumping before the Spring Festival is something that happens every year. Whether it will work this year is still uncertain. --- The black swan variable is indeed unpredictable, so no matter how bullish you are, you must set good stop-losses to avoid being caught off guard. --- Trading SOL alongside other coins is fine, but the risks of ecosystem tokens are much higher than BTC or ETH, so be aware. --- The macro environment is indeed a decisive factor, but technical analysis shouldn't be completely ignored either. Combining both approaches is the safest way.
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