Today the market once again staged a thrilling performance—sharp dives and rapid surges. Watching the intense fluctuations on the intraday chart, many people's hearts also swung up and down. But in fact, this kind of situation is not worth overreacting to with panic.

**Why can we stay so calm? Let’s look at some key data**

For four consecutive trading days, the market has encountered selling pressure around 4130 points, breaking below 4100 points and then bouncing back. This morning’s volatility was indeed more intense, with obvious plunges on the intraday chart, followed by the index testing lows and then rebounding. It looks quite frightening, but if we widen our perspective, there’s a clear signal behind this phenomenon—short-term, the market neither has a foundation for sustained large gains nor the possibility of continuous large drops. The current rhythm is oscillating around 4100 points.

The reason for this repeated oscillation is actually quite understandable. Just pay attention to the performance of the 20-day moving average: although the 5-day moving average has already crossed below the 10-day, the trend of the 20-day moving average is still upward, and its position is gradually rising, currently at 4042 points. This morning, the market’s lowest point was around 4080. In other words, the market is waiting for the daily lows to gradually move upward until it fully tests and confirms the support of the 20-day moving average, before embarking on a real upward move.

As long as the closing price does not make a new low, the 20-day moving average will continue to rise, and the trend will not turn downward. This is a typical case of “using time to exchange for space”—since large downward candles are not allowed to continue, nor are large upward candles, the market consolidates with oscillations, repeatedly confirming at high levels. There’s no need to worry excessively.

**Panic selling has appeared, but it’s actually controllable**

Today’s intraday volatility increased, and thematic stocks collectively lost momentum. During the plunge, nearly 4,000 stocks declined, and domestic funds also experienced significant net outflows. But soon, another scene emerged: in the big financial sector, insurance and banks started to support and lift prices, with funds taking the opportunity to buy low, and trading volume increased accordingly.

This is the real market ecosystem—while some are panicking and selling, others are taking the chance to pick up bargains. The current market size is still over 2.5 trillion yuan, and the volume and trend are not particularly bad.

It’s especially noteworthy that after just a few days of cooling down, the market’s emotional calmness has returned surprisingly quickly, especially with today’s again showing financial sector support, indicating that relevant parties are paying close attention to market sentiment and are not simply suppressing it. Another important signal is that the number of limit-down stocks is decreasing. This is very critical for the short-term market. The more limit-down stocks there are, the more panic there is; the fewer, the more the short-term panic among funds is dissipating, and the earning effect is expected to rebound quickly.

**What’s the plan for the afternoon? The shakeout rhythm is clear**

Yesterday was a surge followed by a pullback; today is expected to be a bottoming and rebounding session. A wave of bottoming and rebounding has already appeared this morning, and this rhythm will continue into the afternoon, with the market ultimately closing around 4100 points. The process of yesterday and today’s oscillations is actually the market conducting a clear shakeout—rising to a high and then falling back indicates resistance above; testing lows and rebounding indicates support below. The essence of sideways consolidation is the shift of long and short positions, and this level needs to be reshuffled.

Although many individual stocks are declining now, from the signals conveyed by policies, the goal is to slow down the market rather than let it stall. Why do funds immediately step in when declines increase? Because they care about the current trend and don’t want the long-term slow bull trend to end abruptly.

If we have to match the current situation with a fast bull trend, it’s indeed not suitable. But from a trend and long-term perspective, we should cherish the chips we hold now.

**Main themes are paused, but opportunities are accumulating**

In the short term, there are no particularly obvious main themes. The most urgent task is to wait for the previous main themes to stabilize after falling. Today, the commercial aerospace sector is seeking support near the 20-day moving average, and cultural media stocks are showing a rebound and recovery in AI applications. Although the two main themes have not fully stabilized, some genuinely benefiting sub-sectors are gradually stabilizing, with AI applications especially worth关注, as they are key directions for the entire first quarter.

At noon, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance released important signals regarding monetary policy and expanding domestic demand. This year marks the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and policy measures will continue to send positive signals, with significant measures in the economic field gradually being implemented. All of this has just begun.

**Key advice: Learn to cherish low-level opportunities**

Sincerely, my advice is: while the market index is still below 4100 points, and during market pullbacks, leave room for yourself to discover opportunities—learn to cherish them. Those who made money in the broad-uptrend bull market mostly did so by holding heavy positions in advance, rarely jumping in at the peak of the market.

When the market gradually evolves into a broad-uptrend bull, at least we will have held our positions through the ups and downs, and won’t regret adding at high levels. Of course, everyone’s situation is different, and strategies should vary accordingly. Think carefully before making decisions—that’s the rational approach.