After watching the market for so long, Ethereum's hourly chart finally starts to speak. On the surface, it looks weak as hell, but those who truly understand can see that the opportunity is hidden in these details. Having traded for many years, today I will clarify the logic behind this wave of market movement from three perspectives: candlestick patterns, on-chain activity, and the latest news.

**Technical Analysis: Weak Momentum After Decline, Rebound Brewing**

When the candlestick dropped to around 3184, the decline was only 0.09%—what does this indicate? The sellers are out of steam. The Bollinger Bands are tightening (middle band at 3206, lower band at 3177), and the price is tightly hugging the lower band without breaking below—this is a sign of accumulation.

More importantly, on the MACD, the red bars are shrinking, and the two lines are brewing a golden cross below the zero line (DIF at -17.74, DEA at -18.49). This multi-timeframe divergence often signals—bears are losing strength, and a rebound is imminent.

Although the moving average system is still in a bearish alignment (30-day MA at 3208), the 7-day EMA has flattened. If we can volume-break through the 3200 level, the short-term correction will immediately trigger a bullish reversal.

**On-Chain Data: Whales Are Secretly Buying Up**

My tracked on-chain data shows that in the past 24 hours, the top 100 addresses added over 150,000 ETH, while exchange reserves have fallen to the lowest point of the year. What does this mean? Institutions are aggressively accumulating during the dip, and retail sellers are being absorbed by large holders.

Active addresses on the network are actually increasing, and Gas fees have stabilized, indicating that the underlying demand for ecosystem usage remains unaffected by price fluctuations—this is the real foundation of a bull market.

**News Sentiment: Positive Signals Gradually Accumulating**

On the macro front, expectations of Fed rate cuts are heating up, and the appeal of risk assets is returning. Industry-wise, the final approval of Ethereum spot ETFs is countdown, with Wall Street funds itching to deploy; Layer2 ecosystems like Arbitrum and Optimism have hit new TVL highs, all supporting Ethereum’s value.

**My Judgment:**

Ethereum is likely to form a bottom between 3177 and 3208. Once it volume-breaks above 3234 (Bollinger upper band), it will quickly surge toward 3260 to 3300 targets. In terms of trading strategy, you can start building positions around 3184, with a stop-loss below 3160. Short-term target is 3234, mid-term target is 3300.

Over more than ten years of market intuition tells me that rationality is always the most valuable currency in the market. My analysis is based on this logic.