Looking at BTC's performance over the years, it becomes clear that investor sentiment cycles through four distinct phases in each market wave.

First is the Optimism phase—large investors and institutions quietly accumulate, driving prices higher. Then comes the Profit-taking phase—prices surge rapidly, and early profit takers begin to reduce their positions. Next, the price retraces from its high point into the Hesitation phase—some investors start to add to their positions to average costs, leading to a battle between bulls and bears. Finally, the Disappointment phase—confidence wanes, holdings loosen, and bearish sentiment spreads.

After the bottom is reached and consensus is rebuilt, this cycle begins anew. These cycles repeat one after another, and investor psychology continually oscillates, gradually forming the market's endogenous pattern.

What makes this round of market movement special? The macro environment's influence is particularly evident. We observed two overlapping events—one is the approval of spot ETFs, and the other is major political events. These factors accelerated the upward trend.

From October to December this year, BTC has been declining from its high, but large institutional players have been increasing their holdings. Compared to previous experiences, this characteristic perfectly aligns with the market being in the Hesitation phase.

However, recent signals are somewhat subtle—the color of the data points on the indicators is gradually fading, suggesting that investor sentiment may be shifting from Hesitation toward Disappointment. This transitional process warrants close attention.

Separating holders by scale reveals that in recent months, the color has deepened mainly due to the actions of whale groups holding between 100 and 1000 BTC. Their movements often reflect the deeper logic of the market.