The 2026 Golden Globe Awards have a new twist. Prediction market Polymarket has become the exclusive prediction partner for the event, directly bringing betting markets into the broadcast. You can see the odds for each award fluctuating in real-time, with nearly $250,000 in bets on the "Best Picture" category alone, and even details like "topics mentioned during the ceremony" are open for betting. It sounds pretty crazy, but the story behind it is even more interesting.

Regulation of these kinds of activities in the US is actually quite strict. As early as the 1958 Onion Futures Act, onion futures trading was banned, and in 2010, the ban was extended to include movie box office futures. The lawmakers' logic was straightforward: to prevent large capital from manipulating market prices through futures contracts. But how does Polymarket operate? They have a "dual-platform architecture" — in the compliant US version, only sports and political election contracts with relaxed regulations are available, fully meeting the requirements of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); the real offshore main site is where the excitement is, with bets on "Avatar" box office and various entertainment events fully open, but US users are blocked. This way, they can avoid legal issues while capturing global traffic and funds. Honestly, this kind of operation has been caught before — Polymarket was fined $1.4 million for violating regulations by providing services to US users.

This situation really highlights some issues. On one side, the Golden Globe operator Penske Media controls both the awards ceremony and related media coverage, which naturally carries the risk of influencing public opinion — if a particular betting track attracts a lot of funds, stakeholders might be tempted to "favor" market sentiment. On the other side, prediction markets themselves are at a crossroads: should they be classified as "financial derivative innovations" or "upgraded gambling platforms"? Kalshi has taken a conservative approach, abandoning box office contracts altogether and fully complying with US regulations; Polymarket, on the other hand, relies on offshore models to expand aggressively. Moreover, tools like VPNs essentially break down the virtual barriers of regional regulation. The entire industry is now exploring in this gray area — regulators haven't figured it out yet, but the market is already evolving rapidly.