The 1-hour candlestick chart shows a heated standoff, with the Bollinger Bands breaking through and the true or false nature hard to distinguish. BTC closed near 92208, hugging the lower Bollinger Band (92291), hesitating. The MACD has already formed a bearish crossover below zero, but the DIF/DEA lines are still at high levels—this kind of movement often indicates a preparatory phase before a trend reversal.

Here are some key technical details:

First, the Bollinger Band narrowing followed by a downward cross—although the price pierced the lower band, the volatility is only 0.32%. This insufficient breakout magnitude suggests a false breakout or shakeout rather than a true downward breakthrough. The hourly RSI has entered oversold territory.

Second, MACD divergence signals are emerging—DIF at 340.5, DEA at 333.2. Despite weakening, the price has stubbornly held above the previous low of 92143. If a secondary golden cross forms later, the hourly chart is likely to trigger a rebound.

Third, multi-level moving averages are forming a squeeze—EMA7 and EMA30 are densely entangled around 92500. This area is a critical decision point for short-term trading. Once volume confirms a breakout, the space can truly open up.

On-chain signals are also speaking:

Net outflows from exchanges have increased for three consecutive days. Large whales are accumulating in the 92000 to 92300 range, with frequent order book absorption actions. The options market is even more interesting: large volumes of 95000 strike call options expiring at the end of February are being bought off-market, indicating institutional expectations of further upward movement.

Fundamentally, last night BlackRock’s spot BTC fund saw its single-day net inflow hit a monthly high, while the European Central Bank signaled the possibility of rate cuts in Q2—traditional financial liquidity expectations are transmitting to the crypto market.

Operational strategy breakdown:

- The baseline defense is at 92000. If the hourly candle closes below this level with a solid red body, it’s time to cut losses and wait.

- An aggressive approach is to gradually build long positions around the current price of 92200. The first target is 93500 (where the middle Bollinger Band overlaps with previous highs), and if broken, aim for 94500.

- Confirmation signals require the MACD green bars to shrink and turn red, along with volume increasing to at least 1.5 times the average of yesterday.

Markets tend to deploy funds when most people are panicking, but discipline is essential to hold onto that money. Whether 92000 can hold before the US market opens is critical—I will monitor the situation in real-time.