#预测市场 Seeing the probability of BTC reaching 100,000 in January on Polymarket jump from 27% to 38%, I have to say—this is a classic example of prediction markets being hijacked by emotions.

In just two days, the probability increased by 11 percentage points. What's behind this? It's not new fundamental data, but more and more followers jumping on the bandwagon. This thing may look like a "democratic vote," but in reality, it's big money testing retail investors' psychological tolerance. When most people are betting on a rise, that's actually the most dangerous time—because there's no one left to take the other side.

I've seen too many people fooled by these "probabilities." The numbers in prediction markets seem scientific, but essentially, they're rooted in gambling psychology. Now so many are betting on a 69% chance of reaching $90,000, which precisely indicates that the market has already priced in optimistic sentiment. Once reality deviates from expectations, it's the start of a chain reaction of liquidations.

Most importantly, don't be fooled by rising probabilities. An increase in probability ≠ the event becoming more likely; it only shows changes in participants' bets. True investors should ask themselves: does the current fundamental support for BTC at 100,000? Or is it purely driven by emotion?

Before placing bets in prediction markets, ask yourself if you can accept completely opposite outcomes. If not, then don't participate. Living longer is much more important than making quick money.