#以太坊大户持仓变化 BTC 1-hour chart is getting interesting now—price is rubbing against the lower Bollinger band at 92291, just closed around 92208. Although the MACD has just formed a death cross below, the DIF and DEA are still holding high levels. This kind of situation usually signals the night before a big move.

Key points in the technical analysis live session:

The recent breach of the Bollinger Bands is a false breakout. The price pierced the lower band, but the volatility is only 0.32%, a typical shakeout move. The 1-hour RSI has already entered the oversold zone, indicating limited bearish momentum.

There are signs of divergence on the MACD. The DIF at 340.5 and DEA at 333.2 are still trending downward, but the price has not broken below the previous low of 92143—once a second golden cross occurs, a short-term rebound on the hourly chart will definitely be triggered.

The moving averages are tightly converged. EMA7 and EMA30 are intertwined around 92500, forming a squeeze zone. As long as trading volume increases and breaks through this area, short-term space will open up.

On-chain data tells a more compelling story. Exchange net outflows have been rising for three consecutive days, indicating retail panic. What about whale activity? In the 92000 to 92300 range, large holders are placing dense buy orders, clearly accumulating at the bottom. The options market is even more straightforward—call options with a strike price of 95000 expiring at the end of February are being heavily bought in dark pools, showing strong institutional expectations for a short-term rally.

The news side also supports this. BlackRock’s BTC spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow that hit a new high for the month yesterday, signaling institutional entry. Plus, the European Central Bank hinted at possible rate cuts in Q2, suggesting liquidity expectations from traditional finance are seeping into the crypto market. Funds are shifting from stocks and bonds into Bitcoin, which makes logical sense.

My own trading approach is as follows:

The defensive line is definitely at 92000. If a 1-hour candlestick closes with a bearish body below this level, immediately cut losses and wait—don’t find reasons to hold on stubbornly.

For a more aggressive approach: start building long positions around 92200 in batches. The first target is 93500—this is the confluence of the middle Bollinger band and previous high points. Once broken, the next target is 94500.

The trigger for confirmation on the right side requires two conditions: MACD’s green bars shrinking and turning red, plus trading volume increasing to 1.5 times yesterday’s average volume. Only when both are met will I consider adding to positions.

In the crypto market, it always seems to be when most people are panicking that money flows in. But the prerequisite is discipline—discipline is the bag that holds this money. The key now is whether we can hold the 92000 line before the US market opens. I will update and adjust my actions in real-time in the community, so interested friends can follow along.