ETH current price is $3185, short-term is in a consolidation and bottoming phase, with a medium-term bullish outlook. Keep a close eye on the key levels of 3150 support and 3300 resistance, and use quantitative methods to precisely set entry points, stop-losses, take-profits, and position sizes.

**Short-term Trading (1-4 weeks)**

Bullish strategy involves entering between 3150-3185, with a stop-loss set at 3140. Profit targets are divided into two levels: take partial profit at 3220, and aim for 3300 as the second target. Keep position size within 5%. The trigger conditions are clear — a 4-hour closing price above 3185 with volume increasing by more than 10%. Why do this? The daily upward structure remains intact, staking yield at 4.5% provides support, and Layer2 scaling continues to advance, all reasons to be bullish.

Bearish opportunities appear if the price breaks below 3150. Once the daily close drops below 3150 and volume shrinks by over 5%, consider shorting around 3180, with the first target at 3100 and the second at 3080. However, short positions should be tighter, with a maximum of 3%. If the 4-hour MACD shows a death cross and RSI is in a neutral to weak zone, combined with short-term macro risk aversion, this is a more confident shorting signal.

**Medium-term Positioning (1-6 months)**

A correction to the 2900-3000 zone with a stable K-line on the daily chart can activate medium-term long positions. Set stop-loss at 2700, and targets at 3500 and 4200. Keep position size within 8%. Why bullish on the medium-term? Staking volume is expected to surpass 30 million ETH, and ecosystem liquidity is marginally improving. The resonance of these factors can generate upward momentum.

**The Iron Law of Risk Management**

No single trade should exceed 5% of the account, total crypto exposure should not exceed 15%, and each stop-loss should not surpass 1% of the total account. The bottom line for longs is 3150; if the daily close falls below this, reduce positions immediately. If it drops further to 3080 and cannot hold, fully exit and wait for the next opportunity. For shorts, the opposite applies — if the price rebounds and the 4-hour close exceeds 3180, stop-loss and exit immediately.

The rhythm for adding to medium-term positions is as follows: after a 20% decline from the bottom, start adding positions; for every additional 5% drop, add 1% to the position, but the total position size should not exceed 12%.

**Daily Key Indicators to Watch**

ETH staking volume, total locked value (TVL) in Layer2, 4-hour volume changes, and EMA20 position — all need daily monitoring.

**Technical and Price Level Tips**

Support levels from bottom to top: 3080 (daily key level), 3100 (historical trading cluster), 3150 (EMA20). Resistance levels are sequentially: 3220 (4-hour EMA20), 3300 (previous high platform), 3430 (mid-term neckline). Currently, the 4-hour MACD shows a death cross, RSI is around 43, and the 24-hour volume has shrunk by about 12% year-over-year, indicating a clear increase in market caution.