Rising this morning, I saw BTC repeatedly oscillating in the 91,000-95,000 range. Many are asking whether this wave is a surge or a crash. Instead of guessing, it's better to look at some data—today's report from Citibank is worth noting: the Bank of Japan may implement three consecutive rate hikes within this year, doubling interest rates.

This may sound far from the crypto world, but it actually directly affects the flow of global hot money. Japan has maintained a negative interest rate environment for a long time, making the yen the cheapest source of arbitrage financing. Global hedge funds and investment institutions borrow yen at extremely low costs and then invest in high-risk, high-reward assets like US stocks, emerging markets, and cryptocurrencies—this is known as the "yen carry trade."

Now, the situation has changed. Once the Bank of Japan continues to raise interest rates, the cost of borrowing yen increases, and these arbitrage trades will need to be gradually unwound. Funds will flow out of risky assets like US stocks and cryptocurrencies and move toward safer, more stable havens. In other words, global liquidity is tightening, and as a high-risk asset, BTC will inevitably face pressure.

This is not an isolated market event but a signal of macroeconomic environment changes. If similar rate hike news continues to ferment later, be mentally prepared—BTC may face more pressure in the short term.