A well-known cryptocurrency project founder is currently facing a class-action lawsuit involving allegations of market manipulation across multiple tokens. Based on case analysis, the probability of winning civil compensation is approximately 75%-85%, while the likelihood of criminal conviction ranges between 50%-60%. Once a judicial ruling or regulatory intervention occurs, exchanges are highly likely to initiate rapid delisting procedures, which could mean the token being removed from all platforms.

An even more challenging issue is the classification of the token's nature. If the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ultimately determines it to be a security product, it will face a comprehensive trading ban—including major platforms like Binance—which would have to immediately halt trading. Liquidity could vanish completely in a short period, leaving holders in a difficult position.

From a regulatory standpoint, U.S. law enforcement agencies have implemented extremely strict policies against fraud in the crypto space. Looking back at the SBF case and the Terra incident, both resulted in severe penalties. Currently, this case involves celebrity endorsements and widespread public losses, attracting high societal attention, making it difficult for regulators to ignore. The probability of intervention is quite high. Market participants should closely monitor the developments.