#预测市场 Seeing the fluctuations in Bitcoin prediction data on Polymarket, I am reminded of a common phenomenon—market participants are often easily attracted by short-term probability changes. A jump from 27% to 38%, an 11 percentage point increase, can indeed be tempting.

But I want to remind everyone that prediction markets reflect the collective sentiment of participants, not certainty about the future. Looking closely at this data, the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $80,000 has decreased from 30% to 20%, and this rapid change itself indicates the volatility of market sentiment. The higher the predicted probability, the more it often signifies that participants' confidence is gathering, but where confidence gathers, risks are also quietly accumulating.

My advice is, rather than chasing these numbers up and down, ask yourself: Is my asset allocation truly suitable for the current market environment? Is my position too heavy? Do I have enough emergency funds to cope with possible volatility? In the long run, a safe asset allocation and a stable mindset are often more important than prediction markets.

Predictions are interesting, but protecting your principal always comes first.