ETH is only $156 away from $1.1 billion liquidation; why is market pressure asymmetric on both sides?

According to the latest data, ETH’s current price of $3,186.58 is at an interesting juncture. A breakout above $3,156 to $3,343 will trigger a liquidation wave of $1.102 billion in short positions on mainstream CEXs; a breakdown below $145 to $3,041 will trigger $790 million in long position liquidations. These two liquidation pressure points form an invisible “angle” in the current market, and the structural opportunities embedded within are worth noting.

Asymmetry in Liquidation Pressure

Greater pressure on short liquidations

According to Coinglass data, there is a significant difference in liquidation scales on both sides. Short liquidations amount to $1.102 billion, while long liquidations are only $790 million, with short pressure being 39% higher. This reflects that bearish positions are currently heavier in the market; once ETH breaks above resistance, the forced liquidation of shorts will be much larger than that of longs.

Insights from Market Structure

This asymmetry indicates two issues. First, the derivatives market currently has stronger shorting forces, with accumulated short positions being substantial; second, the upward potential is more likely to trigger large-scale liquidations than downward moves. In other words, if ETH breaks upward, the scale of forced liquidations will be larger, which in turn can further push prices higher, creating a positive feedback loop. Conversely, downward breakouts are associated with smaller liquidation scales, and downward momentum may not be as strong as upward.

Support from Current Market Fundamentals

Bullish Fundamental Signals

Relevant information shows multiple positive signals for Ethereum’s fundamentals. Etherscan data indicates that Ethereum Gas fees have plummeted to $0.01, a 99.98% decrease from the historical high of $50. This improvement is attributed to the Fusaka upgrade, PeerDAS launch, and widespread Layer2 adoption, effectively alleviating mainnet congestion.

More importantly, validator exit queues have dropped to zero, indicating no one is attempting to unstake and sell ETH. Meanwhile, millions of ETH are waiting to be staked, further tightening supply. From a supply-demand perspective, this provides upward support for the price.

Institutional Optimism

BitMine recently stated that 2026 could be the breakout year for ETH/BTC. The firm currently holds over 4 million ETH, earning between $400 million and $430 million annually from staking. This large-scale institutional holding and optimistic outlook, to some extent, reflect professional participants’ confidence in ETH’s medium-term prospects.

Short-term Risks and Opportunities

Significance of the Price Range

The current $3,041-$3,343 range, a $302 difference, has become a key battleground. This zone contains both liquidation pressure threats and fundamental support. In the short term, the market is likely to oscillate within this range, testing the patience of both bulls and bears.

Possible Price Movements

From a technical perspective, although ETH recently dipped below $3,200 (24-hour decline of 3.18%), it still gained 2.52% over 7 days and 7.24% over 30 days, indicating an overall upward trend. Once it breaks above $3,343, the $1.102 billion short liquidation will act as an accelerator, pushing prices higher and further expanding gains. This is precisely why the upward space’s liquidation pressure warrants close attention.

Summary

ETH is currently in a position where liquidation pressures are asymmetric, with short liquidations far exceeding long ones, implying greater risks and opportunities on the upside. Coupled with the significant drop in Gas fees, validator exit queues hitting zero, and institutional optimism, the market’s support for upward movement is relatively strong. In the short term, the $3,343 liquidation pressure point is not only a technical resistance but also a potential acceleration point. However, it is important to note that the $1.102 billion short liquidation scale also means that once broken, volatility will increase significantly, with risks and opportunities coexisting.