🚨Is the rate cut dream still worth waiting for? The Federal Reserve has a 95% probability of holding steady in January
This wave is not just about delaying rate cut expectations. The Fed's latest stance is very clear — maintaining interest rates at the January meeting is almost certain, and a high-interest-rate environment will continue. The hawkish tone remains unchanged.
The real turning point is in March. The market is already betting whether the next decision window will make a 180-degree turn. The problem is that the Fed is balancing two variables: inflation and employment. Until the data is released, they simply won't proactively say "rate cut."
How does this affect your investments?
💵 US dollar and US Treasuries: Rates remain high and won't ease, so the dollar will stay strong, and US Treasury yields will find it hard to decline. 💰 Stock market and cryptocurrencies: With a rate cut still far off, high-valuation growth stocks and risk assets like Bitcoin will face short-term pressure.
So, waiting for the January announcement is now pointless; March is the real battleground. Every time CPI or non-farm payroll data is released, the market could ignite. The Fed controls the policy rhythm, but market expectations are already racing ahead — are you keeping up?
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🚨Is the rate cut dream still worth waiting for? The Federal Reserve has a 95% probability of holding steady in January
This wave is not just about delaying rate cut expectations. The Fed's latest stance is very clear — maintaining interest rates at the January meeting is almost certain, and a high-interest-rate environment will continue. The hawkish tone remains unchanged.
The real turning point is in March. The market is already betting whether the next decision window will make a 180-degree turn. The problem is that the Fed is balancing two variables: inflation and employment. Until the data is released, they simply won't proactively say "rate cut."
How does this affect your investments?
💵 US dollar and US Treasuries: Rates remain high and won't ease, so the dollar will stay strong, and US Treasury yields will find it hard to decline.
💰 Stock market and cryptocurrencies: With a rate cut still far off, high-valuation growth stocks and risk assets like Bitcoin will face short-term pressure.
So, waiting for the January announcement is now pointless; March is the real battleground. Every time CPI or non-farm payroll data is released, the market could ignite. The Fed controls the policy rhythm, but market expectations are already racing ahead — are you keeping up?