#比特币周期规律 Has the four-year Bitcoin cycle died? I don't think it's that absolute.

The first annual decline after the 2024 halving indeed contradicts the patterns of the past three cycles—that's something to admit. But the key point is that the driving factors have changed. The era dominated by retail investor sentiment is over; now it's the age of ETFs, institutional funds, and macro liquidity. Variables like interest rates, regulation, and geopolitical issues have become significantly more influential, and the appeal of halving itself has been relatively diluted.

From a follow-the-leader perspective, this actually presents an opportunity for us. Those traders still mechanically believing "halving must lead to a rise" have already been educated by reality this year. The real experts who have survived and are still making money have long since adjusted their strategic framework—they're looking at macro cycles, capital flow rhythms, and policy windows, rather than blindly sticking to technical analysis.

From the peak of 126,000 to now, a drop of over 30%, this correction is actually quite healthy, indicating the market is digesting expectations. Recently, several medium-risk traders I follow are positioning within this range, with the logic that the underlying assets are not broken—just overvalued levels have been corrected.

The cycle may indeed have changed shape, but the market's pendulum effect is still there. The key is who to follow and how much.