2026-01-20 03:33:31

Recent market fluctuations have sparked an interesting discussion. Many traders agree that: when policies change, buying pressure often quickly absorbs the decline. But the issue isn't that simple.

In reality, the market faces only two paths. One is that the futures decline is quickly bought back, leading to a rebound. The other is that the decline has just begun, and it continues to fall until retail investors completely doubt the authenticity of the policy, at which point it stops falling. It's hard to see a comfortable 2% dip that allows retail investors to calmly bottom fish—the market never gives such opportunities.

Interestingly, retail investor sentiment often accurately predicts the direction. Looking at history: in August, everyone was all-in on a certain leading sector, and by early October, they all shifted to assets related to rare earths. This collective shift has never failed. This is not a coincidence, but rather a logical aspect of market participants' emotions.

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ForkTrooper

· 7h ago

Anyway, it's those two scenarios again: either a quick rebound or continued liquidation of retail investors. The market has never given a comfortable opportunity... --- Retail investors collectively turning around has never failed? That's a bit of an absolute statement, but the wave from August to October was indeed fierce. --- A 2% drop haha, overthinking it. The market simply won't be that gentle. --- Basically, it's a gamble on whether the policy is real or fake. If you bet wrong, retail investors will have to cut their losses. --- So now, should we wait for a rebound or continue to fall? Who can tell me... --- It's always like this: retail investors who run first get trapped, and those who run last chase the high. --- The emotional side has logic, but you have to catch that train; otherwise, you'll just be a passenger. --- That wave of rare earths in October was indeed absolute, just not sure where the next turn will be. --- The market never gives opportunities, that's true. It's like a routine, always one step ahead of you. --- Honestly, this kind of analysis looks good, but in practice, you still have to chase highs and cut lows.

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SerumSqueezer

· 7h ago

Has the retail collective shift never failed? I remember that the all-in wave in August was crushed to death... The direction of emotional prediction depends on whose emotions you're looking at; the main force's emotions are the real answer.

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NervousFingers

· 7h ago

After all this time, it's still the same trick—retail investors are just tools to give money to institutions.

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ShortingEnthusiast

· 7h ago

Retail investor sentiment accurate? Well, not really, it's more like gambler psychology, just following the trend. --- Once again, this set of theories, sounding like retail investors can really hold on to the bottom, all are after-the-fact armchair strategizing. --- A 2% decline is indeed luxurious; the market just likes to scare people, waiting for you to be completely desperate before rebounding. --- In August all-in, in October turning points, sound impressive but are just another way of saying chasing highs and selling lows. --- The key issue is what the policy actually means; no one dares to take over because it's unclear. --- This time is different, it doesn't feel that simple; will it continue to fall? --- Emotion-based prediction direction? I think it's more about emotions being harvested. --- A comfortable bottom-fishing opportunity indeed doesn't exist, but going all-in also depends on timing. --- So is it a rebound or continued sell-off? That’s the real question.

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FlashLoanPhantom

· 7h ago

Well... I believe in the accuracy of retail investor sentiment, but to be honest, I have never waited for that 2% bottom-fishing opportunity. To put it simply, the market is just playing psychological warfare; there is no such thing as a comfortable trend that is black or white.

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