#预测市场 Seeing that the probability of Bitcoin breaking 100,000 in January on Polymarket is only 27%, I find it quite interesting. While the market provides probabilities, it is also pricing in risk—91% for 90,000, 68% for 85,000. This decreasing probability curve actually hints that most people's true expectations fall within the 85,000-90,000 range.

This is key information for copy traders. Those heavily betting on 100,000 either have a clear informational advantage or are playing a high-risk, high-reward game. I usually observe the historical drawdown and win rate of such aggressive players. If they can consistently grasp the 27% event, then their position size should be strictly controlled. But if they are just gambling, I’d rather follow traders who operate steadily within the 85,000-90,000 range. Their win rate may not be as exciting, but their curve is smoother.

Market forecasts are essentially pricing for traders with different risk preferences. My advice is not to be dazzled by low-probability events, but to find the most stable trading logic within the high-probability ranges. That’s the rhythm you can follow for the long term.