How to interpret the short-term trend of Bitcoin?

Let's first look at tonight's situation. US stocks are likely to open lower, and the Bitcoin spot ETF will also open lower. But there's a detail—opening lower doesn't necessarily mean large net outflows. It has been verified several times before that after a gap-down opening, net outflows are actually not significant.

The key level is right here. Bitcoin is approaching the short-term trend line. This line is very important and can be used to judge the next move: if it stays above the trend line, the rebound can continue; once it breaks below, the current rebound from December 19 will basically be over.

Now, let's look at the capital flow. Recently, the US side has been pushing the market up, while Asia has been selling off. Both sides lack momentum and it's hard to tell who will win or lose. Therefore, the direction of US stocks becomes a key variable. If US stocks continue to weaken, Bitcoin's selling pressure may surpass buying, directly pushing the price below the trend line. This is the logical chain that needs to be closely monitored at the moment.