#比特币周期规律 Looking at the institutions' outlooks for 2026, one detail caught my attention—Matrixport says 2026 will be "a series of tightly clustered risk events," urging investors to "actively manage their positions." This sounds official, but translated, it means: don't just sit and wait, be ready to run at any moment.

What’s even more concerning is the four-year cycle issue of Bitcoin. 2025 has become the first year after the halving to still see a decline, with some declaring the cycle dead. But I want to say, this precisely shows that the market has become more complex—not driven solely by simple programmed halving events, but by macro factors like the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, Japan raising rates, US political cycles, and liquidity releases in a tug-of-war.

The key point is that in the first half of 2026, the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates 2-3 times, which would lead to liquidity release. But in the second half, with midterm elections approaching, uncertainty will spike. If polls show the Democrats ahead, the market will price in risks early, and crypto assets may face adjustments.

My advice: there is an operational window in the first half, but don’t hold heavy positions. Build a small 1-3% dollar-cost averaging allocation, increase holdings inversely during margin liquidations, and decisively reduce during overheated speculation. Remember, surviving longer is more important than getting rich quickly. The market will always present opportunities, but one fatal mistake means no second chance.