A recent market phenomenon has emerged: the Federal Reserve has been emphasizing the need to delay interest rate cuts, yet gold and copper prices continue to rise on their own. Behind this "you say one thing, I do my own" attitude reflects a mindset among market participants—rather than waiting for the central bank to act, it's better to price in liquidity changes in advance.

Historically, whenever an easing cycle is approaching, metal prices are always the first to sense the shift. This is no coincidence. Factors such as real yields, financing costs, and market expectations tend to be more sensitive in metals than in other assets. Gold, in particular, often begins to rise months before the first rate cut, without waiting for the central bank to take action.

And what about Bitcoin? Its response is a bit slower. This is not surprising, given that the pricing logic of crypto assets differs from traditional finance. But interestingly, once metal prices have adjusted to the easing environment, Bitcoin often experiences a stronger rally. From this perspective, the current market pattern seems to be replaying this scenario.

Ultimately, financial markets always react faster than policymakers, especially when capital costs are about to turn. This is vividly reflected in gold trends. As investors realize that the real yield of the dollar is peaking, they start shifting funds into gold. The logic behind this is clear: cash is becoming less valuable, and the relative value of scarce assets rises.

The synchronized rise in copper prices reinforces this signal. Copper is not just an industrial metal; it is also a barometer of credit and real economic activity. When gold and copper rise together, it indicates that the market is hedging risks while also expecting that easing will benefit the real economy. This dual signal is much more reliable than focusing on a single asset class.

The link connecting them is real yields. Whether it’s gold, copper, or Bitcoin, this indicator is a core driver. Especially the US 10-year yield, which can be seen as the true risk-free rate. When it begins to decline, scarce assets become relatively cheaper. Even if central bank officials continue hawkish rhetoric, it cannot change this overarching trend.

Some ask if copper’s correlation is relatively weak? It’s true, but it still benefits from the improved financial environment and dollar weakness brought about by falling real yields. These changes are not as direct as with gold, but the direction is the same. From this perspective, the current performance of metals is laying the groundwork for Bitcoin’s upcoming rally.