I've been thinking about a question lately—who will be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. This matter is actually more important than many people realize.

In simple terms, whoever leads the Federal Reserve determines whether monetary policy will be hawkish or dovish. This directly impacts the liquidity environment, which in turn affects the overall performance of the crypto market. A hawkish stance will continue to raise interest rates to control inflation, tightening liquidity; a dovish stance will be relatively moderate and more friendly to risk assets. The effects of these two policies are completely opposite.

Previously, I analyzed that the bear market has actually already quietly begun, and the current window for a market top might be more urgent than you think. Whether this window will expand largely depends on the attitude of the Federal Reserve. If the policy tone is contractionary, market pressure will persist; if it shifts to easing, there will be room for a rebound.

An interesting perspective is that, as a dark horse among the candidates for succession, once Rieder takes office, his policy inclination will redefine market expectations. The next move depends on how he plays his cards.

In short, this is a variable that requires ongoing observation. The market is waiting, and so are we.