US December inflation data just released, with core CPI year-over-year at 2.6% and month-over-month at 0.2%, both below market expectations (2.7% and 0.3% respectively). The seemingly subtle numerical differences have triggered a chain reaction in global asset markets.

Let's first look at the logic behind the data. Sharp declines in used car prices and a noticeable slowdown in rent growth are enough to offset the inflationary pressures from food and energy prices. The result is: inflation is easing modestly but has not yet reached the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This "decrease but not yet" situation leaves ample room for market imagination.

The most direct market reaction is the change in interest rate expectations. The probability of a rate cut in April has risen from 38% to 42%. Although the increase is limited, it indicates that the market's bet on a loosening cycle is strengthening. A rate cut in June remains the mainstream expectation among most institutions. US Treasury yields have slightly declined, the dollar initially fell then rose, and the stock market appears somewhat lackluster.

For traders, the signals released by this type of data cannot be ignored. Easing interest rate environments are generally friendly to risk assets. Specifically, growth stocks and the tech sector are expected to receive more attention, while traditional financial sectors may face some pressure. As a high-risk asset class, cryptocurrencies will also benefit from improved liquidity expectations. Positioning BTC and ETH at lows is a good strategy, but be sure to set a 5% stop-loss to manage risk.

Don't forget the overall risk control principles: keep positions within a 30% ceiling, limit individual stop-losses to within 2% of the principal. Keep an eye on January's non-farm payroll data and February's CPI trends, as these key points could redefine market expectations for the timing of rate cuts.