Recently, the market has been quite interesting. Trump’s tariff war combined with the Fed’s shrinking rate cut expectations caused $BTC to break through the key support level of 94,700 and return to the previous range of consolidation.

The bottom of this range is around 80,000 yuan. If the second wave of decline truly begins, let’s focus on this level first.

Looking back at the past month and a half of movement, I’ve been emphasizing that—before the second major crash of the bear market—there must be a rebound to around 98,000. On January 15th, it reached 97,925, which is basically on target. Although it didn’t push higher, from the perspective of a major bear market, rebounding to 98,000 and then being hammered down is a normal rhythm.

The key signal is: can this week’s BTC weekly chart stay above 95,000? If it can’t hold, then the second wave of decline is basically confirmed. If it really enters a downtrend, there’s no need to worry about short-term technicals anymore; just switch to a value investing mindset.

Regarding the bottom, my judgment is around the miner shutdown price—roughly between 55,000 and 60,000. In an extreme scenario, if we fully reference the 2022 decline ratio, it could theoretically fall to around 48,000, but honestly, I think that’s unlikely. After all, many governments, companies, and institutions worldwide are accumulating Bitcoin now, so supporting a bottom at 60,000 to 70,000 makes sense.

The AHR999 indicator has not lost its effectiveness so far; at most, it’s slightly dulled at the bottom. When it drops to 0.45, I’ll go all-in for a bottom-fishing.