2026-01-20 03:22:59

According to market forecast data, the market on January 20th reflects investors' cautious attitude towards the recent Bitcoin rally. On major prediction platforms, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through the $100,000 mark within January has fallen to 21%—a significant decline from earlier optimistic expectations.

Specifically, market expectations for different price levels are diverging: only a 7% chance of reaching $105,000, indicating weak consensus for a substantial rally; while expectations for downward movement are more dispersed, with an 18% probability of dropping to $85,000 and 6% to $80,000. From this data, it can be seen that the market has clear disagreements on Bitcoin's short-term direction, neither bearish below $80,000 nor optimistic about directly breaking through $100,000.

This shift in forecast patterns may reflect recent market sentiment transitioning from previous upward momentum to oscillation and caution. After weighing multiple factors, investors' expectations for short-term gains have converged.

BTC-3,58%

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ZenChainWalker

· 14h ago

A 21% probability? If I had known it would turn out like this, I wouldn't have listened to those influencers' hype. --- Just watch the market fluctuate, I’m just lying low this month. --- I'm not surprised if I can't break 100,000; that's just how the crypto world is, predictions are always after the fact. --- From optimistic to cautious, what does that mean? It just shows that no one really has a clear idea. --- 7% chance to reach 105,000—that's even lower than winning the lottery, haha. --- Market disagreements are normal; anyway, someone always loses money. --- While fluctuating and observing, investors are just throwing a tantrum.

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TradingNightmare

· 14h ago

This data is a bit disappointing; a 21% probability still feels like fooling myself. 100,000 can't be broken through at all; this round is just wearing down human nature. Here we go again, another sideways grind to torment people. When will there finally be a satisfying market trend? Last time I said 7%, and it was just 7%. I went all in the opposite direction and made a profit. A typical stalemate situation. If it were me, I’d wait for a breakdown before making a move.

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BrokenRugs

· 14h ago

Alright, we're swinging again. What does this data indicate? It just means no one dares to place bets anymore. --- A 21% chance and still talking about 100,000... Do they really think we're all that naive? --- Waiting and watching? Basically, there's no direction. Retail investors still have to follow the trend and wait for signals. --- 7% chance to reach 105,000? That's less likely than me winning the lottery haha. --- Interesting, the market has shifted from frenzy to caution. Looks like the rapid rise earlier needs to be retraced. --- Prediction platforms are probably just talking nonsense, looking at it backwards makes it more accurate or not. --- Another signal of a new round of profit-taking? Feels like the wind direction has changed.

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BlockchainWorker

· 14h ago

This wave of market movement is really just oscillating and watching; a 21% probability is too low, it feels like no one dares to make a move. --- Is 100,000 really that difficult... I was still thinking it could go up before. --- Looking at this data, everyone is hesitant, I’m also at a loss. --- Such a big disagreement indicates that now entering the market is just gambling. --- From optimistic to cautious, the market sentiment is changing extremely fast. --- Fluctuating between 8 and 10.5, a typical oscillation range. --- Why does it feel like the market is becoming harder to predict... --- This probability of decline is making my mindset collapse. --- Everyone is watching and hesitant to act; is the market just stuck like this? --- As expected, there are no absolute bullish signals, only relative pessimism.

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MiningDisasterSurvivor

· 14h ago

I've experienced it all, including the more surreal data reversals in 2018. What’s this little divergence now? Only a 21% chance of reaching $100,000? Basically, the big players should have sold early, and now everyone is fighting to be the next sucker. This wave has shifted from an upward drive to a sideways wait-and-see, which is actually a signal of the main players offloading. Don't be fooled by this so-called "predictive market."

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AlphaBrain

· 14h ago

I will never trust these prediction platforms again; they always give me unlucky data.

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NeverPresent

· 14h ago

A 21% probability? Basically, no one really believes in it. This market rally feels a bit fake. --- Here comes the fluctuation again, the old routine. Who still trusts prediction platforms? --- 7% to hit 105,000? That's laughable. It's simply not realistic. --- It seems everyone is just watching. Who dares to go all in for real? --- From optimistic to conservative, and it happens so quickly? Market sentiment can change in an instant. --- Fluctuating between 80,000 and 100,000, it’s killing the institutions. --- Converging expectations means the market is dead, if you ask me.

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