2026-01-20 03:22:41

I have seen too many people like this — not beginners, nor do they truly lack understanding. They are the type who can make instant judgments on anything; the more chaotic the market and the more complicated the situation, the more confident they seem.

After experiencing complete bull and bear cycles, I am especially wary of this kind of "certainty." You know, many big pitfalls actually appear when everyone is most optimistic. The markets that are easiest to profit from are often the ones where it's easiest to step on a landmine.

The complexity of the market itself explains everything. Those who can give immediate answers are either truly well-informed or just gambling. And the most dangerous state when gambling is to treat the gamble as a certainty.

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AirdropHunterXiao

· 10h ago

People who make quick judgments are often the most likely to experience a crash, I have deep experience with this. The more confident the voice, the more cautious you should be; consensus is a trap. Those who can answer immediately either have extremely sufficient information or are gambling. The biggest risk in gambling is taking it seriously. After experiencing several bull and bear cycles, I realize that the most promising times are often the most dangerous. Treating gambling as certainty—that's the most common scene of a crash I've seen. Complex markets should be approached with a complex mindset. Too many people can't distinguish whether it's cognition or luck—that's the real problem. You're absolutely right. When the market is chaotic, you should be more cautious; it's not about being more decisive to win.

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SilentObserver

· 11h ago

The more chaotic, the more certain they seem—those are the people I really can't stand. Treating gambling as a certainty—that's just the prelude to a margin call. The strongest consensus is often the most dangerous, a lesson learned through blood and tears. There's nothing wrong with that statement, but how many people can truly maintain skepticism? After a bull or bear cycle, those who dare to judge instantly are either really stubborn or in need of a brain wash. Having enough information and gambling are actually on a very blurry line. What I fear most are these kinds of people, especially when they drag a bunch of others into the pit together.

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CryptoWageSlave

· 11h ago

I’m telling you, you guys, the more chaotic the market, the more you dare to boast. Anyway, it’s not like you’re losing your own money. The most likely place to have a blow-up is where there are many people. This is really not alarmist. Those who answer instantly, are either databases or gamblers. What are they trying to achieve? I’ve seen too many of these "I’ve seen through it" types, and three months later, their accounts are gone. When consensus is at its highest, that’s when vigilance should be the strongest. That’s the real truth. The more you boast, the faster you die. It’s no surprise anymore. Fully informed? Ha, who has truly been fully informed? Gambling and certainty are separated by a single explosion of principal. It’s that simple.

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