$BTC $ETH $BNB The market has been closely watching a signal: the Bank of Japan may consider significantly raising interest rates.

How significant is this? Let’s break it down.

Japan has been implementing a negative interest rate policy since 2016, maintaining it for nearly twenty years. If they actually raise rates by 100 basis points this time, the rate will jump from -0.1% directly to 0.9%. This is not a mild adjustment but a historic policy shift.

Why is the market so nervous? Because the chain reactions that follow are too complex.

First, yen arbitrage trades will instantly reverse. Past operations of borrowing yen to invest in high-yield assets will fail. Trillions of dollars may flood back into yen assets, directly impacting the global asset allocation landscape.

Second, Japan’s government debt is 2.5 times its GDP. Once interest rates rise, the cost of financing government bonds will soar. For global institutional investors holding Japanese bonds, this means paper losses will gradually become apparent.

Looking further out, U.S. Treasuries, European stock markets, and emerging markets will all feel the pressure of capital withdrawal. The era of "cheap money" that has lasted over twenty years may truly come to an end. The market’s pricing logic will need a complete overhaul.

The most frightening thing in financial markets has never been the risks already on the table. The real shock comes from the giant that has been sleeping suddenly turning around. Every attempt by the Bank of Japan to test the waters tightens the nerves of global hedge funds.

Will they go all in this time? Can the global economy withstand this wave of impact? The discussion in the comments is already heated—some say "the domino effect has begun," others believe "ultimately, there will be a compromise." What’s your view?