#市场周期与趋势 Looking at VanEck's 2026 outlook, I have to be honest—this data is actually a relatively "good news" for those who experienced the last 80% decline. The nearly halved volatility means that the current drop might only be around 40%, and the market has already priced in 35%. In other words, the worst may be behind us.

But here’s a pit I’ve repeatedly fallen into and want to remind everyone: a consolidation year does not equal a safe year. On the contrary, it’s the easiest time to get shaken out—because there’s no clear direction, various project teams and whales will create false signals to induce FOMO. The four-year cycle law of Bitcoin still holds, indicating that the market structure remains intact. However, if 2026 becomes a consolidation year, it means many will be forced to make decisions during sideways trading, often ending up losing money from frequent trading.

Leverage has already been reset during the washout, and this detail is very important—it indicates that risk has been largely released. VanEck’s suggested dollar-cost averaging strategy (1-3% allocation) combined with the discipline of "adding during liquidity flushes and reducing during overheated speculation" is the way to survive long-term. Don’t chase highs, don’t panic sell lows, use time to buy space.

Although on-chain activity is still weak, it’s beginning to improve—true opportunities come from this bottom-level activity increase, not from a sudden surge in a specific coin. Stay alert, plan your funds well, 2026 should be a year for recovery and growth.