MegaETH is launching soon, with an 88% probability in the prediction market to see its FDV break $1 billion on the first day.

The prediction market on Polymarket has given a quite optimistic signal: there is an 88% probability that MegaETH’s FDV will exceed $1 billion within one day of launch. And less than two days remain until that moment. This not only reflects market expectations for this new public chain but also highlights the crypto ecosystem’s desire for high-performance chains.

Market Expectations Behind the Prediction Market Data

According to the latest news, the prediction market on Polymarket regarding MegaETH FDV has attracted over $7 million in trading volume, enough to demonstrate the market participants’ attention to this event. The specific expectation distribution is as follows:

This data is quite interesting. The high 88% probability indicates a strong consensus that MegaETH will surpass $1 billion FDV on its first day. However, the jump in probability from $1 billion to $2 billion (from 88% to 41%), and further down to $3 billion (from 41% to 14%), reflects a typical decreasing distribution of market expectations — most believe it can reach the first target, but are more reserved about more aggressive goals.

MegaETH’s Technical Preparation and Ecosystem Layout

This high probability is not just wishful thinking. According to related information, MegaETH’s mainnet launch is now in the final countdown.

Ambitions in Technical Indicators

MegaETH is scheduled to officially launch its mainnet on January 22, but before the official opening, a 7-day global stress test will be conducted. The goal of this test is quite aggressive: to process 11 billion transactions, achieving a throughput of 15,000 to 35,000 TPS. In comparison, Base’s average TPS is about 866, and Ethereum mainnet is only 73, meaning MegaETH’s target throughput is over 200 times that of Ethereum.

Ecosystem Application Pre-Deployment

Ecosystem preparations are also proceeding smoothly. USDM, as MegaETH’s native stablecoin, is supported by RedStone Bolt oracle, ensuring real-time and accurate price data. The first batch of applications includes DeFi applications driven by USDM and consumer apps, with MegaSwap (a decentralized exchange) and PrismFi (a Uniswap V3 fork providing concentrated liquidity) already trackable. The stablecoin protocol Cap also plans to deploy on MegaETH in Q1.

This “application-first, ecosystem synergy” launch strategy provides a foundation for the initial hype accumulation.

Reasonableness of Market Expectations

With an 88% probability, the market has quite strong confidence that MegaETH will break $1 billion FDV on its first day. This confidence stems from several factors:

• Attractive technical narrative: The goal of 15,000-35,000 TPS is enough to attract developers and investors interested in high-performance chains
• Pre-launched ecosystem: Not just an empty shell, but with real applications and ecosystem support
• Market anticipation cycle: Crypto markets tend to peak on the first day of a new chain’s launch
• Stablecoin support: The presence of USDM provides infrastructure for DeFi applications

However, the probabilities of 41% and 14% also indicate that the market recognizes that surpassing higher targets like $2 billion or $3 billion will face more uncertainties.

Summary

MegaETH’s launch has become one of the key events in the Q1 2026 crypto market. The 88% high probability reflected in the prediction market demonstrates broad market anticipation, and this expectation is not unfounded — from technical indicators to ecosystem deployment, MegaETH is preparing for the first-day hype. However, there is often a gap between expectations and reality, and the actual performance will only be clear after January 22. In any case, this launch is worth paying attention to.