WAL unlocks $2.45 million worth of tokens after one week. What does this mean for the price?

Walrus (WAL) is about to undergo a relatively large token unlock. According to data from the Web3 asset data platform RootData, approximately 17.5 million WAL tokens will be unlocked at 10:00 AM Beijing time on January 27, with a current value of about $2.45 million based on the current price. This is an important event that the market should pay attention to in advance.

Unlock Scale Assessment

From an absolute number perspective, the unlock of 17.5 million tokens is not small. However, to assess its market impact, it needs to be viewed within WAL’s overall supply structure.

From this perspective, the single unlock amount is relatively moderate. The 17.5 million tokens compared to a circulating supply of 158 million represent a manageable increase. However, the key factor is the pace of unlocking—if this is part of a continuous, high-frequency unlocking cycle, the cumulative effect could become more significant.

Project Fundamentals Support

Whether WAL can absorb this unlock depends on the project’s own value creation ability. Based on current information, several positive factors are worth noting:

Ecosystem activity is rising

• Recent news shows that Unchained Podcast has chosen Walrus to protect its media library, indicating increasing real-world application
• Walrus is addressing the genuine need for handling large unstructured data files
• The project is expanding across multiple chains such as Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche

Funding background provides support

• $140 million in funding is leading in the storage sector
• Investors include top institutions like Standard Crypto, a16z, Electric Capital
• This capital support provides ample resources for ecosystem development and market expansion

Clear technical positioning

WAL is not just a simple storage coin but a foundational infrastructure token within the Sui ecosystem. It addresses core issues of large file storage and data availability in Web3 applications, representing a long-term demand rather than a short-term hot spot.

Market Performance Context

Currently, WAL’s market performance is relatively rational:

• Price: $0.140023, down 4.22% over the past 7 days, up 10.37% over the past 30 days
• Market Cap: $220.83 million, ranked #148
• 24-hour trading volume: $11.97 million, but down 50.92% from the previous day

The decline in trading volume is noteworthy—it may reflect a cooling market sentiment or normal fluctuations. The volume trend before the unlock will be an important indicator of market mood.

Possible Market Reactions

Short-term pressure

On the day of the unlock and the following days, two scenarios may occur:

1. If market sentiment remains optimistic, institutions or long-term holders might absorb the selling pressure, keeping the price stable or slightly rising
2. If the market is cautious, the unlocked tokens could be quickly sold off, causing short-term price pressure

Long-term depends on application adoption

Based on my observations, the price of infrastructure tokens is ultimately determined by network usage value. If Walrus’s storage services are increasingly adopted by applications, the tokens unlocked will gradually be absorbed by network demand. Conversely, if application adoption remains slow, even without unlocking pressure, the price may not perform well.

Details to Watch

Unlock source

The news does not specify the source of these 17.5 million tokens—whether it’s due to team/investor lock-up expirations or ecosystem incentive releases. Different sources imply different market implications.

Unlock pace

Is this a one-time unlock or the start of a dense unlocking period? If similar-sized unlocks occur weekly afterward, the cumulative pressure could be significant.

Ecosystem progress

Ecosystem developments before and after the unlock are crucial. If there are major application launches or increased adoption during this period, it could offset unlocking pressures.

Summary

The WAL token unlock is indeed an event worth monitoring, but in terms of scale, it is not catastrophic. The 17.5 million tokens account for less than 1.2% of circulating supply, which is relatively manageable. The key points are:

1. Project fundamentals are improving—actual applications are increasing, and the ecosystem is expanding, providing long-term support
2. Market sentiment still needs observation—recent volume decline requires watching the market response before and after the unlock
3. Unlocking is a short-term event—the real factor influencing WAL’s price is the adoption of the Walrus network

For holders, the unlock itself does not necessarily warrant excessive panic, but close attention should be paid to market reactions and ecosystem dynamics around the event. For observers, this is a good opportunity to understand how the market prices infrastructure tokens.