#比特币周期规律 Recently, there have been many discussions about Bitcoin cycles. Some say the four-year cycle is dead, while others believe we have entered a new paradigm. Honestly, the truth behind these debates is more worth our attention.

The dip in 2025 indeed broke previous patterns — it was the first annual loss after the halving. But if we broaden our perspective, we can see that Bitcoin is evolving from retail-driven sentiment to institutional liquidity-driven dynamics. The addition of ETFs, corporate assets, and national reserves has made this market more complex and requires us to understand it with different thinking.

In 2026, three key variables are at play: the Federal Reserve’s possible 2-3 rate cuts, the Bank of Japan’s rate hike pace, and the policy window before the midterm elections in November. These factors stack up, and short-term volatility is inevitable. But I want to remind you that the market is full of various predictions and optimistic assumptions, which can easily lead us astray.

Rather than betting on cycles, it’s better to focus on what you can control. Proactively adjusting positions in response to liquidity expectation changes, precisely timing exposure before policy shifts, and disciplined reduction during overheated market speculation — these are the true paths of prudence. Investing 1-3% regularly, maintaining flexibility before and after clear risk events, is more reliable than blindly betting on any cycle theory.

Long-term holders don’t need to be overly pessimistic now, but don’t let various market narratives cloud your risk judgment. Safety first, cycles second.