#MSCI未来或纳入数字资产财库企业 🔥Bitcoin is still far from the ceiling. Summary of mid-term outlook in this wave of market行情🔥

The macro environment is still decent, but the momentum is slowing down.

The Federal Reserve's rate cut pace is still ongoing, M2 money supply remains growing, and liquidity is ample—these all sound like positive signals. However, the reality is that recent ETF outflows of $4.57 billion have directly created a significant sell pressure. Interestingly, once the CLARITY bill advances and large banks truly enter the market, institutional replenishment will be quite aggressive, and the market will shift from "de-risking" to "re-risking," signaling a turning point.

On-chain data is no longer so pessimistic.

The $84,000 level already has buyers guarding it, making it unlikely to break through easily. The $98,000 level is the short-term holder’s cost basis, and currently, it’s the main resistance. Indicators like MVRV-Z suggest that the market valuation is neither obviously overvalued nor driven to irrational panic. It’s basically in a healthy correction zone—short-term volatility may continue, but the long-term upward trend remains intact.

Targeting $185,500? That’s the projection.

Using $145,000 as the baseline valuation, plus a 25% macro factor premium (rate cuts, M2 growth, bill expectations, etc.), the target price comes to $185,500. This leaves about 100% upside from the current price.

In the short term, the market may continue to grind within the current range, digesting ETF outflows. Once institutional replenishment and the bill’s finalization occur, prices are likely to quickly break out of the consolidation zone and start a new major rally.

Final words

The macro environment is stable, on-chain data is turning neutral to slightly bullish, and institutional expectations are gradually being realized—$BTC is not an overvalued asset now; rather, it’s gathering strength. Short-term volatility won’t change the long-term direction. Once the bottom is confirmed and institutions start to buy back, that will be the core logic.

Don’t panic prematurely; be patient and wait for that moment. By the end of the year, Bitcoin isn’t “expensive,” but rather “still early.”